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2025-09-16 16:43:52
Oil Prices Stable as Market Weighs Russian Supply Risks and Federal Reserve Decision: ⑴ Oil prices traded sideways on Tuesday, with Brent front-month contracts down 0.3% to $67.24 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude down 0.3% to $63.11 per barrel. The market simultaneously assessed supply risks posed by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. ⑵ Ukraine has recently intensified its attacks on Russian energy facilities. JPMorgan Chase notes that attacks on export terminals such as Primorsk would directly restrict Russia's ability to sell oil abroad and ripple through international markets, providing an upward catalyst for oil prices. ⑶ Goldman Sachs estimates that drone attacks have curtailed Russian refining capacity by approximately 300,000 barrels per day from August to this month. Despite high uncertainty surrounding secondary tariffs, Asian buyers remain willing to import Russian oil, and Russian production is expected to decline only modestly. ⑷ Investors also focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a 25 basis point rate cut widely expected. While low interest rates typically stimulate fuel demand, analysts remain cautious about the overall health of the US economy. ⑹ The market is betting on a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, with official data due on Wednesday. Macquarie expects inventories to fall by 6.4 million barrels in the week ending September 12, reversing a 3.9 million barrel increase in the previous week.
