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2025-09-16 17:30:46
[The ruble's strong return: dual support from trade data and central bank decisions] ⑴ The ruble strengthened further against the US dollar on Tuesday, reaching 83 rubles to the dollar, an increase of 0.6%. Previously released Russian balance of payments data showed that the ruble's appreciation in the first half of the year did not have a significant negative impact on foreign trade. ⑵ Although the market expected the Russian Central Bank to cut interest rates by 200 basis points last week, it actually only cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 17%, indicating that inflationary pressures still exist, providing support for the ruble. ⑶ Russia's foreign trade surplus reached US$13.2 billion in July, up from US$10.2 billion in the same period last year, demonstrating strong trade fundamentals. Institutional analysis pointed out that there are currently no fundamental factors for a significant weakening of the ruble. ⑷ It is worth noting that the ruble's share in Russia's export settlement has increased significantly, reaching 53.3% in the second quarter, an increase from 45.6% in the first quarter and 40.0% in the same period last year, further consolidating the ruble's international status.
