Next week (September 22nd to 26th), global financial markets will usher in a "wave of policy speeches" after the end of the Federal Reserve's silent period. The intensive voices of FOMC voting members will become the core focus of the market. Combined with key economic data such as European and American PMIs, US core PCE, and dynamics of central banks in many countries, the US dollar index is expected to fall into a high volatility range.

Non-US currencies such as the euro and the pound may diverge depending on data and policy signals. Gold may have the opportunity to fluctuate upward supported by inflation and policy uncertainty, while crude oil needs to keep a close eye on the game between inventory data and demand expectations.

Overall, if Fed officials signal a dovish tone, it will weigh on the dollar and benefit gold. However, if hawkish rhetoric intensifies, it could exacerbate currency market divergence and volatility in risky assets. Investors should also monitor the "expectation gap" between economic data and policy statements from major economies, and be wary of short-term disruptions caused by sudden public opinion fluctuations.

On Monday (September 22), important Fed officials will speak, and the Reserve Bank of Australia policy line index will be watched.

At 9 a.m. on Monday, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will deliver a speech. His remarks will reveal his views on Australia's inflation or economy and policy inclinations, which will directly affect the Australian dollar trend and create a linkage effect on commodity currencies such as the New Zealand dollar.

European economic data will gradually come out in the afternoon. The UK CBI industrial order difference and the preliminary value of the Eurozone September Consumer Confidence Index will be released successively, both of which reflect economic growth.

In the evening, the Federal Reserve committee will kick off with speeches. St. Louis Fed President Moussallem, a 2025 FOMC voting member (with a hawkish stance), will deliver a speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy, which deserves special attention. Afterwards, New York Fed President Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member (the "number three person" in the FOMC), will speak on monetary policy and the economic outlook. As one of the core policy decision makers, his statement directly affects the market's expectations for the Fed's subsequent interest rate path and has an impact on the U.S. dollar and gold.

On Tuesday (September 23), global PMIs were released intensively, amplifying stock market volatility. Speech by Federal Reserve officials also amplified volatility.

Tuesday will be "PMI Day" for the markets, with a flurry of data releases during the Asia-Europe session: preliminary September manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be released, followed by preliminary UK manufacturing and services PMIs, and finally, the US preliminary September manufacturing PMI, which will be released in the evening. As a leading indicator of economic prosperity, whether the PMI will provide a boost or a dampener for global stock markets depends on the day.

In addition to data, the Federal Reserve's "speech matrix" continues to gain momentum: that day, Cleveland Fed President Hammack, a 2026 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin, a 2027 FOMC voting member, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will each deliver speeches on the economic situation. The three voting members have distinct positions, and the market will focus on their divergent views on the path of inflation, employment, and interest rates.

Crude oil inventories set the direction on Wednesday (September 24), while Bank of Canada and real estate data add variables

On Wednesday, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem's speech affected the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, both the US API and EIA will release crude oil inventory data.

In addition, data related to U.S. new home sales will be released on the same day (new home sales are a leading indicator of the economy, reflecting the potential for economic growth and the vitality of the industrial chain).

Thursday (September 25th) saw the release of employment and inflation data, and the Fed's speech caused another uproar.

Thursday will mainly focus on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States this week and the number of continuing jobless claims last week, as well as the U.S. quarterly GDP, CPI and core PCE data.

On the same day, the annualized total of existing home sales in the United States for August (existing home sales account for 90% of US residential transactions and are a barometer of the real estate market) will be released. If existing home sales figures rebound, it will reflect a rebound in residential housing demand, suggesting stronger consumer confidence and supporting the US dollar.

In the evening, Federal Reserve officials also spoke simultaneously. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, and New York Fed President John Williams spoke one after another. Their statements on the status of the US dollar and monetary policy may cause short-term fluctuations in the US dollar index.

Friday (September 26) US core PCE finale

Japan's inflation data will be released first on Friday, with the Tokyo CPI annual rate for September being released.

The "final data" of this week will be released in the evening. The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in August (the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays most attention to) will be announced, as will the final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September.

At the same time, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman will deliver speeches and may comment on the just-released PCE data.

Conclusion: Seizing opportunities in asset differentiation

The core conflict in global financial markets next week will be the deciphering of Federal Reserve policy signals and the verification of key economic data. Investors should focus on next week's US employment and inflation data. Fed officials' differing views on the duration of interest rate maintenance and inflation targets are crucial for determining the medium-term trajectory of the US dollar. Capitalize on the forex and gold opportunities presented by fluctuations in the US dollar index.

The frequent release of PMIs will also have an impact on global stock markets. Traders can then monitor the statements of the Reserve Banks of Canada and Australia to capture trading opportunities in the Canadian and Australian dollars.

Overall, market fluctuations next week will focus on "policy signals" and "data verification", with opportunities coexisting in both directions. Investors need to be wary of fluctuations caused by data and speeches that exceed expectations, and capture certainty in the fluctuations.