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2025-09-16 18:04:50
Harvest Season's "Sweet Burden": Global Wheat Prices Fall Below Multi-Year Lows ⑴ With the harvest season progressing in the Northern Hemisphere and positive prospects in the Southern Hemisphere, global wheat supply abundance continues to pressure the market. Global wheat production in 2025/26 is projected at 805.7 million tons, a slight increase from previous estimates. Increases in the EU, Ukraine, the UK, the US, and Australia offset declines in Russia and Kazakhstan. ⑵ Despite this, consumption is expected to exceed production this season, reaching 814.6 million tons, resulting in a 3.4% decline in global ending stocks to 250.6 million tons. This oversupply directly contributed to a continued decline in wheat prices in September, with futures hovering near multi-year lows. ⑶ The outlook for wheat in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in Australia and Argentina, is particularly positive due to favorable weather conditions and ample soil moisture, further exacerbating the market's sense of ample supply. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring the decline in inventories, but in the short term, supply pressures from bumper harvests appear to be the dominant factor, and market sentiment is cautious.
