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2025-09-16 18:19:25
[Eve of Volatility: Gambling in a Data Vacuum] ⑴ The market appeared to be trapped in a data vacuum ahead of the release of key US retail sales data, with relatively light trading. Overnight data showed that the 2- to 10-year Treasury yield spread fluctuated between 50.7 basis points and 47.8 basis points, while the 5- to 30-year Treasury yield spread fluctuated within a narrow range of 105.6 basis points to 104.4 basis points. Trading volume in the TYZ25 contract was well below average, indicating cautious investor sentiment. ⑵ Despite market rumors, such as Trump's attempts to appoint Federal Reserve officials and the Senate confirmation of his nominee, Stephen Milan, these events did not elicit a significant market reaction. The focus will remain on upcoming US economic data. The market generally expects import prices to fall by 0.1% month-over-month in August, while overall retail sales growth is expected to slow to 0.2%. However, core retail sales growth, excluding autos and gasoline, is likely to remain at 0.4%. ⑶ At the trading psychology level, in an environment of increasing uncertainty, investors tend to avoid risks and wait for clearer signals. The claim that the European economy has fallen behind its global competitors due to "complacency", as well as the stabilization of the UK unemployment rate, both hint at the complexity of global economic growth. Although US futures prices have risen slightly due to expectations of a Fed rate cut, retail sales data will be the key variable in determining short-term market sentiment. ⑷ Although overall market volatility is limited, structural economic problems remain. Industrial output in August is expected to be flat compared to the previous month, and capacity utilization is also showing a slight downward trend, indicating that the foundations for the recovery of the real economy are still unstable. Against this backdrop, any economic data that falls short of expectations is likely to exacerbate market concerns, while performance that exceeds expectations is likely to boost risk appetite.
