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[Rate Cut Expectations Rising: Wall Street Traders' Heartbeat and Market Pulse] ⑴ The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with institutions widely expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 3.9%, highlighting strong market expectations for a shift in monetary policy. ⑵ The latest labor market data released for August showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%, while inflationary pressures continue to moderate. These factors provide the Federal Reserve with greater policy room to maneuver and enable it to shift more quickly to a neutral monetary policy stance. ⑶ In response to this favorable data environment, several prominent institutions have adjusted their forecasts for the extent of interest rate cuts through 2025. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, among others, predict a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by year-end. Forecasts from Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Barclays also point to a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, typically consisting of three cuts, with the initial cut expected in September. (4) Other institutions believe the pace of rate cuts may be more modest. Macquarie and Nomura Securities expect a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points, consisting of two cuts, mainly in September and October or September and December. Bank of America Global Research and HSBC hold similar views, predicting a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points, with cuts in September and December. (5) Notably, two independent research units within UBS Group have offered even more aggressive forecasts. UBS Global Research projects a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points by the first half of 2026, starting in September. UBS Global Wealth Management also predicts a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points by the end of the first half of 2026, also starting with a cut in September. Standard Chartered Bank anticipates a single 50 basis point rate cut in September. (6) The widespread market expectation of a rate cut, coupled with signs of a cooling labor market and slowing inflation, suggests that monetary policy is at a critical turning point. Trader sentiment and institutional forecasts paint a picture of a loosening monetary policy, which will have a profound impact on future financial market trends.