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[Caixin Futures: Palm Oil Supply Concerns Boost Divergent Trends in the Agricultural Products Sector] ⑴ Recent days of heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia, have caused flooding and power outages. As a major palm oil producing region, the market is concerned that harvesting during the September-October production season will be hampered, and supply growth may be lower than expected. ⑵ Shipping agency data shows a slight month-on-month increase in exports from September 1st to 15th, providing support for BMD crude palm oil futures. Trading in Malaysia is expected to rebound after Wednesday's resumption. ⑶ Domestic 24-degree palm oil spot prices in Guangzhou rose 110 yuan to 9,410 yuan/ton today. The continuous P2601 contract strengthened on the rebound in crude oil and recovering biodiesel demand. ⑷ Combined with the start of stocking for the two major holidays and the return of rapeseed oil to the 10,000 yuan mark, sentiment in the oil and fat sector has improved. Technically, the 9,330-9,400 yuan range provides strong support. ⑸ The trading strategy has shifted from a volatile approach to a bullish one, with long positions being considered on pullbacks. ⑹ While soybean supply is not a major concern in the fourth quarter, a potential gap may exist in the first quarter of next year, supporting a premium for the deferred month. ⑺ Soybean meal prices have recently weakened. This is partly due to the entry of auctioned soybean reserves into the domestic crushing market, and partly due to the impact of progress in tariff and trade negotiations on short-term sentiment. ⑻ Subsequent market developments will depend on the release of concrete policies or the scale of reserve soybean auctions. Short-term drivers are insufficient, so a wait-and-see approach is recommended. ⑼ Traders enjoyed decent profits last year, leading to a high level of speculation in the new-season corn market. Combined with lower year-over-year inventories at northern ports, opening prices for corn in Northeast China have increased year-over-year. ⑽ New-season spring corn is expected to remain relatively strong for a while before weakening. A small position is recommended for shorting. ⑾ Regarding pig supply, overall slaughter in September may still increase, with limited room for further reductions in slaughter weights. Overall, supply will continue to increase slightly. Near the end of the month and the beginning of the month, pig farmers may experience a regular reduction in slaughter, which may drive a short-term rebound in spot prices. ⑿ Demand has been gradually rising recently, providing some support for prices. There may be an early increase in stock at the end of September in preparation for the National Day holiday. Farming profits may recover somewhat in September, but the extent will be limited. A bearish outlook is maintained in the long term, and a light position is recommended for shorting. ⒀ Egg open interest is significantly higher than the same period last year, and market expectations are increasingly conflicting, but there has been a recent downward trend. Funding flows require careful monitoring. ⒁ Far-month and ultra-far-month contracts maintain high premiums, and basis valuations are high. Long-term supply may continue to increase, but short-term peak season demand will be less than expected, leading to weak spot prices. A bearish outlook is recommended.