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2025-09-16 22:00:14
[The resilience of the US consumer market cannot mask hidden concerns; talk of tariff increases may become a stumbling block to growth] ⑴ US consumer data showed remarkable resilience, with retail sales growing 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations. Core retail sales rose 0.7%, indicating active consumer spending across a range of goods and dining out. ⑵ While rising prices partially inflated the sales figures, US consumers remained remarkably willing to spend. Service spending, particularly at restaurants and bars, a barometer of household finances, grew 0.7%, suggesting the US consumer base remains solid, reducing the risk of a recession. ⑶ However, signs of weakness in the US job market cannot be ignored. Despite the strong retail sales data, signs of a loosening labor market, such as slowing wage growth and rising unemployment, cast a shadow over the sustainability of future US consumer spending growth. ⑷ Furthermore, the uncertainty created by talk of tariff increases and the resulting concerns in the US market could pose potential downside risks to the continued health of the economy. While US consumers still have the ability to spend, heightened concerns about the job market suggest a potential slowdown in US consumer growth in the second half of the year. ⑸ Data show that consumer spending growth is weakest among young Americans and certain age groups (born between 1965 and 1980), which may be related to the fact that the salary increase brought about by job hopping is not as high as before, further highlighting the impact of labor market changes on the consumption capacity of different groups.
