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2025-09-17 13:59:22
[Preview of the Fed's decision: If the interest rate is only cut by 25 basis points, the US dollar may rebound] According to foreign media analysis reports, the US dollar index is currently hovering near a 41-month low, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes are both at record highs, and US Treasury yields are close to the April low. Market pricing fully reflects the expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed. In the context of dovish expectations and the continued decline of the US dollar, if the Fed only implements the expected 25 basis point interest rate cut, there is likely to be a "buy expectations and sell facts" reaction. The US dollar seems to be expected to rebound, and the US stock market may face profit-taking. To maintain the decline of the US dollar and the rise of US assets, a 50 basis point interest rate cut and the recognition of the expectation of large-scale easing by Fed Chairman Powell may be required. Although the market believes that the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is only 3%, this possibility cannot be ruled out: the record downward revision of US employment data may force the Fed to take action.
