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[Latest Trends in Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Data] ⑴ The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the early hours of the 18th. UBS economists predict that it will continue to cut interest rates until March 2026, shifting its policy stance from restrictive to neutral. ⑵ Singapore's non-oil domestic exports fell 4.9% year-on-year in August, the largest drop since March 2024, primarily due to the drag from non-electronic products. United Overseas Bank (UOB) expects export growth to be at the lower end of the 1%-3% range in 2025. ⑶ UK inflation remained at 3.8% in August, with services inflation falling from 5.0% to 4.7%. Deutsche Bank believes the data partially corrects July's unexpected upward trend, but food inflation remains at 5.1%. ⑷ The euro recently hit a four-year high against the US dollar. ING predicts that if the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle and the European Central Bank maintains interest rates, the euro could test the 1.20 mark. ⑸ The German Finance Ministry expects to increase its fourth-quarter debt issuance plan by €15 billion, of which €12 billion will be bonds. Citi Research indicates that half of the additional issuance may be allocated to seven-year bonds. (6) Gold futures fell 0.5% to $3,706.50 per ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.2% to 96.82. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and retail sales data, which showed three consecutive months of growth. (7) The market expects the Fed's consecutive rate cuts to support risky assets. Investors are focused on Powell's balance between a slowing labor market and inflation risks. (8) The UK 10-year government bond yield fell 2 basis points to 4.626%. EFG Asset Management believes that slowing service sector inflation increases the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in the last quarter of 2025. (9) The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.1% to 96.745, near a two-and-a-half-month low. Market pricing indicates a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. A 50 basis point cut could trigger significant currency fluctuations. (9) Maybank, citing a rebound in Singapore's manufacturing PMI and expanding demand for AI, expects electronics exports to resume growth in September. Fiscal support and a booming construction sector are expected to mitigate the impact of slowing trade. ⑾ UK ICAEW economists believe August's inflation data puts an end to expectations of an interest rate cut this year. Rising business costs could push inflation above 4% in September, but slowing service sector inflation suggests easing price pressures. ⑿ UK-based ASK Partners notes that global volatility and domestic policy shifts have created a dilemma for the Bank of England. Markets are pricing in a 40% probability of a December rate cut, and the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to maintain interest rates until the November budget.