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2025-09-17 17:21:52
[Stubborn inflation in the UK: The road to rate cuts is thorny] ⑴ Sebastian Vismara, chief investment strategist at BNY Mellon Investment Management, said that high inflation in the UK limits the Bank of England's room for future rate cuts. ⑵ The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious stance at its meeting on Thursday, consistent with its August guidance, emphasizing the need to ease price pressures. ⑶ Continued high inflation in the service sector, combined with resilient GDP growth, limits the room for easing policy over the next 12 months. ⑷ The money market expects the benchmark interest rate to fall from 4.0% to 3.5% in 2026, but institutions predict a low of 3.75%. ⑸ Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD is under pressure around 1.30, and a break below it could test the key support level of 1.2950. ⑹ From a trading psychological perspective, investors have increased their expectations for hawkish signals from the Bank of England and need to be wary of short-term market fluctuations. ⑺ Trump's tariff remarks have exacerbated global uncertainty, which may weaken the attractiveness of the pound and increase risk aversion.
