Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-09-17 17:59:34
[The 11.54 bottom line suddenly appears to signal a "hard bottom": Are EUR/NOK bears running out of ammunition?] ⑴ Since July 2023, the EUR/NOK weekly chart has quietly carved a slowly rising channel, with the most recent low falling to 11.4010 in June of this year, indicating that bulls have quietly accumulated chips over the past two and a half years. ⑵ April's bearish surprise drove the exchange rate from 12.2220 back to 11.5651, and this week it tested 11.5400. However, after five consecutive weeks of decline, momentum indicators have weakened. Monday's daily closing of the doji candlestick chart and the strong rebound in the RSI have turned short-term sentiment from extremely cold to positive. ⑶ The first technical barrier is the 10-day moving average at 11.6428. If it holds, the 38.2% retracement level at 11.7088 will become the next target. This level corresponds to the middle watershed of the August-September decline. A break above this level will officially confirm the long-term bottom structure. ⑷ Further up, there are three weekly cloud bands "magnets" waiting to be tested: the cloud band turning points on October 3, November 21, and February 13 of next year are concentrated at 11.7420-11.7435. Historical data shows that about 72% of the bands will return to this dense area, attracting prices to move upward. ⑸ At the event level, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decisions on Wednesday and the Norwegian Central Bank on Thursday. If the interest rate differential is expected to tilt in favor of the euro, coupled with technical resonance, the krone may face additional selling pressure in the short term, and the "shallow bottom" on the long-term chart is expected to be upgraded to a medium-term bottom.
