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2025-09-17 18:45:02
[Does the US Dollar Face a "Death Cross"? Multiple Signals Suggest Continued Decline] ⑴ Multiple technical indicators suggest the US dollar is facing severe challenges. Since July, the US Dollar Index's 55-week moving average has fallen below its 200-week moving average, forming a so-called "death cross" signal. The 100-week moving average is currently crossing below the 200-week moving average, further exacerbating bearish sentiment. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday (Beijing time), the US Dollar Index's low was only 21 points above its 2025 low, indicating continued downward pressure. ⑵ Market analysts believe the dollar's decline may be deeper than expected. The next key support level may be 94.98, well below the 2025 low of 96.37. Data shows that traders who previously held over $18 billion in short positions in July have now significantly reduced their short positions to $5 billion, indicating that market confidence in the US dollar is wavering. ⑶ In addition, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve's easing cycle to end early, and this expectation has a significant impact on the US dollar exchange rate. Analysis points out that traders seem to have generally lost confidence in the US dollar, which further consolidates the US dollar's downward trend.
