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2025-09-17 20:38:55
[Non-farm payrolls surprise, pound soars! Markets surge ahead of the Fed decision!] ⑴ GBP/USD hovered near the key option expiration level of 1.3650 on the eve of the Fed's interest rate decision. This level coincides with the middle of the currency pair's price range over the past 24 hours. The Bank of England will announce Thursday at 11:00 GMT (19:00 Beijing Time) that it will reduce its quantitative tightening (QT) program and maintain interest rates. The previously released UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) annualized rate was in line with expectations at 3.8%. ⑵ The market generally expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at 02:00 Beijing Time the following day, followed by Powell's press conference at 18:30 GMT (02:30 Beijing Time). If the Fed adopts an ultra-dovish rate cut, it could put pressure on the US dollar and push GBP/USD higher, potentially towards 1.37. ⑶ It is worth noting that US President Trump's administration has previously announced tariffs, which may have sparked market concerns. Meanwhile, institutional reports indicate that copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to a one-week low on Wednesday (September 17th, Beijing time), with the benchmark three-month copper contract down 1.6% to $9,963 per ton. China's copper production rose 15% year-on-year in August. Aluminum prices fell 1.3% to $2,683 per ton. Other metals such as zinc, lead, tin, and nickel also saw declines. In the commodity market, ICE Arabica coffee futures fell sharply by 4.1% to $3.9245 per pound on Wednesday (September 17th, Beijing time), retreating from a near seven-month high of $4.24 reached the previous day. Traders believe the price correction is not surprising given the recent significant price increases. Meanwhile, sugar production in Brazil's central and southern regions is expected to rise 17.3% year-on-year to 3.8 million tons in the second half of August. Cocoa prices in London fell slightly by 0.04% to £5,088 per ton, with the market focused on the development of the main season crops in West Africa.
