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2025-09-17 20:52:34
[Caixin Futures: Commodity Markets Diverge Ahead of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision] ⑴ The Federal Reserve will announce its September interest rate decision at 02:00 Beijing Time. The market is already pricing in a 25bp rate cut, with a small probability of a 50bp cut. ⑵ The more important factor in the game lies in the "dot plot." The outcome of the meeting will likely not change the rate cut narrative or the outlook for rate cut trading, but there will be short-term fluctuations. ⑶ Gold's trend will depend on the wording of the statement. A dovish statement will result in a smaller and shorter-term correction, while a hawkish statement will have a larger negative impact on gold. ⑷ Alumina prices rose in the evening session due to anti-involutionary sentiment but retreated from highs. Fundamentals maintain an oversupply situation, and weekly operating capacity has rebounded again. ⑸ Alumina inventories and warehouse receipts continue to increase. The import window has opened, and import expectations are increasing. The overall trend is weak, so shorting on rallies is recommended. ⑹ For Shanghai aluminum, the market is closely watching the Fed's decision, wary of the risk of a lower-than-expected rate cut, while expectations for the golden September and October peak season remain. 7. The continued increase in LME Asian warehouse withdrawals has heightened supply-side concerns, but inventory accumulation has been modest this week, with destocking falling short of expectations. 8. Aluminum prices remain volatile, with a primary strategy of buying on dips. The timing of the destocking inflection point remains to be seen. 9. Scrap aluminum shortages are intensifying in the cast aluminum alloy market, with panic buying driving prices higher. While the traditional peak season is approaching, quality remains to be determined. 10. Supported by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, cast aluminum alloys are expected to maintain a relatively strong performance, with a primary strategy of buying on dips. 11. Lithium carbonate's rebound continues, driven by anti-involutionary sentiment and downstream stockpiling efforts. Prices remain supported amidst the peak demand season. 12. The results of Yichun mining companies' "self-inspections" remain pending, raising uncertainty on the supply side. We recommend a cautious wait-and-see approach and be wary of the risk of news disruptions on the supply side.
