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2025-09-17 21:17:29
[Natural gas prices plummet? Major players lower their Q4 forecasts, raising questions about supply and demand] ⑴ The agency significantly lowered its Q4 2025 natural gas price forecast to $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This move is primarily due to high inventories, and prices could fall further if tropical activity impacts natural gas demand along the Gulf Coast. ⑵ Despite downward pressure, the agency maintains its 2026 natural gas price forecast at $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), driven by strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand. However, if natural gas production growth exceeds expectations in early winter, this could drag down prices in 2026. ⑶ Prices in the West Texas (WAHA) region are under pressure, and limited connectivity is expected to keep prices in the Southeast at a premium until new pipelines come online in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, ample spare capacity is expected to suppress prices in the ERCOT region from 2026 to 2027. ⑷ The continued growth of solar and battery storage capacity, in line with load growth, is also impacting the supply and demand balance in the natural gas market to a certain extent, introducing new variables.
