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2025-09-17 21:20:14
[Federal Reserve Hawk vs. Dove Contest: Three Dissenting Votes Could Trigger a Dot Plot Seismic Change] ⑴ LHMeyer's tracking report indicates that the Fed's "dot plot" released this week will, for the first time, include the position of hawkish official Milan. The market may see a picture of a "25 basis point rate cut on the surface, but three dissenting votes hidden." ⑵ Kevin Burgett, an analyst at the firm, bluntly stated that Milan is "almost certain" to vote against the rate cut. While the dot plot conceals his name, it may reveal his preference for a "larger rate cut," directly lowering the median. ⑶ Fed Governors Bowman and Waller have also been named as potential "defections," forming a rare three-way dovish alliance. Notably, Waller previously supported only 25 basis points, before the unexpected August non-farm payroll figures and the preliminary QCEW figures revealed a weaker labor market. This new data may prompt a shift in her stance. ⑷ If the dot plot shifts downward as a result, market bets on additional rate cuts this year will suddenly intensify, potentially leading to a sharp drop in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and gold prices could take advantage of this momentum to break through their recent range.
