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2025-09-18 20:33:15
[Caixin Futures: Agricultural Products Sector Strategy Overview] (1) Palm Oil: The US dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve's rate cut, coupled with less-than-expected biodiesel policy, leading to a sharp drop in US soybean oil prices. Malaysian palm oil opened high and closed lower, fluctuating at a high level. The first round of stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays has concluded in China, with the second round of stockpiling not expected to begin until mid-November. Guangzhou 24°C palm oil spot prices fell 170 yuan to 9,210 yuan/ton, while soybean oil fell 80 yuan to 8,630 yuan/ton. Palm oil led the decline, with overall weakness and fluctuations at a high level. A neutral strategy is recommended. (2) Soybean Meal: Soybean supply is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, but a gap may emerge in the first quarter of next year. The long-term premium structure remains supportive. The recent market weakness is partly due to the auction of soybean reserves entering the crushing phase and partly due to the impact of progress in tariff negotiations on sentiment. Short-term drivers are insufficient, so a wait-and-see approach is recommended, focusing on policy releases and the pace of auctions. (3) Corn: Traders enjoyed good profits last year, leading to strong speculation in the new-season corn crop. Combined with low inventories at northern ports, opening prices for new corn in Northeast China have risen year-on-year. New-season spring corn is expected to remain relatively strong after its release, before weakening. A light position is recommended for shorting. (4) Pigs: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs continues to hold symposiums with companies to discuss production capacity control measures, which is positive for futures prices. However, current supply pressures remain significant, and the market is weak. Short-term downstream stockpiling may support prices, but the long-term outlook remains bearish. Shorting on rallies or hedging is recommended. (5) Eggs: Current open interest is significantly higher than in previous years, increasing market expectations and leading to a recent decline. The significant pre-holiday spot price increase led to a rebound in futures prices, but the magnitude was limited, and the market gradually shifted to a discount. Long-term supply continues to increase, and the overall outlook remains bearish.
