Gold prices are well above $4,000, with no sign yet of an end to their record rally
2025-10-08 21:56:03
Gold prices surged in early U.S. trading on Wednesday (October 8), with December gold futures (currently trading approximately $20 above spot gold) reaching a new contract high and all-time record of $4,072. Silver prices hit a 14-year high overnight and are approaching their all-time peak just above $50.00. Safe-haven demand, fueled by the U.S. government shutdown and other geopolitical uncertainties, drove precious metals higher. December gold futures rose $45.8 to $4,050.2, while December silver futures rose $0.895 to $48.41.
The current US government shutdown has become the fourth-longest in modern history. While most federal government shutdowns last only a few hours or days, the current one has already ranked fourth in length. There are signs that the shutdown may not last much longer, including delays in US air travel. Reports indicate that the last government shutdown, from late 2018 to early 2019, ended due to air travel delays. Clearly, lawmakers from both parties will feel the pressure of discontent among American travelers and voters.
Bloomberg News, citing a Federal Aviation Administration announcement, reported that flights arriving and departing from Chicago and Dallas were delayed Tuesday evening due to staffing shortages caused by the government shutdown. Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, a major hub for American Airlines Group, experienced an average flight delay of 30 minutes on Tuesday. Air traffic controllers and other key personnel remain on the job during the week-long shutdown, but they will not receive their salaries until Democrats and Republicans reach a resolution to the impasse.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England, a prominent institution, warned that the stock market faces overvaluation. In its strongest warning yet, the Bank of England said that overvalued artificial intelligence companies and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence have increased the risk of a "sharp market correction." In its quarterly Financial Stability Report, the central bank noted that while "significant uncertainties remain in the global macroeconomic outlook," asset valuations have continued to rise and credit spreads have narrowed since its June review.
According to the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee meeting held on October 2, officials said that stock market valuations appear "excessively high," with "technology companies focused on artificial intelligence" being particularly vulnerable. If "market expectations of the impact of artificial intelligence become pessimistic," these companies will be more significantly affected. This view has been expressed by several others, including renowned trader Paul Tudor Jones, who said this week that the US stock market may be entering the "final stage of a frenzied rally."
The US dollar index hit a nine-week high, driven by a weakening euro amid the French political crisis. The US dollar index has risen sharply over the past three weeks, reaching a new nine-week high today. Meanwhile, the euro fell to a two-month low, largely due to tensions in the EU and European markets caused by the French political crisis.
Outgoing French Prime Minister Sebastien Le Cornu expressed confidence in forming a new government through negotiations, but stopped short of fully endorsing a new proposal to review the controversial pensions bill. Former French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said she was open to suspending the pensions bill if it would bring stability to the country – a major concession for the Socialist Party. Le Cornu noted that the goal of passing the budget by the end of the year “reduces the possibility of dissolving the National Assembly” and “requires that all parties have the capacity to move forward.” Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced an unexpected interest rate cut and hinted at further monetary easing, sending the New Zealand dollar to a six-month low and providing additional support for the US dollar's gains today.
Global stock markets saw mixed gains and losses overnight, with overall weakness. U.S. stock indexes are expected to open slightly higher when New York trading opens.
In other key external markets today, crude oil prices were firm, trading around $62.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was currently at 4.11%.
Technical Analysis
(Comex Gold Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)
From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have a clear advantage in the overall near-term technical picture. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing futures prices above the key resistance level of $4,100.00. Bears' immediate downside price objective is pushing futures prices below key technical support at $3,850.00. First resistance is seen at today's all-time high of $4,071.50, with further resistance at $4,100.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,005.60, with further support at $4,000.00.
December silver futures bulls also have a clear advantage in the overall near-term technical picture. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is pushing prices above key technical resistance at $50.00. Bears' immediate downside price objective is closing prices below key support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $48.835, with further resistance at $49.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $47.53, with further support at $47.00.
The current US government shutdown has become the fourth-longest in modern history. While most federal government shutdowns last only a few hours or days, the current one has already ranked fourth in length. There are signs that the shutdown may not last much longer, including delays in US air travel. Reports indicate that the last government shutdown, from late 2018 to early 2019, ended due to air travel delays. Clearly, lawmakers from both parties will feel the pressure of discontent among American travelers and voters.
Bloomberg News, citing a Federal Aviation Administration announcement, reported that flights arriving and departing from Chicago and Dallas were delayed Tuesday evening due to staffing shortages caused by the government shutdown. Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, a major hub for American Airlines Group, experienced an average flight delay of 30 minutes on Tuesday. Air traffic controllers and other key personnel remain on the job during the week-long shutdown, but they will not receive their salaries until Democrats and Republicans reach a resolution to the impasse.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England, a prominent institution, warned that the stock market faces overvaluation. In its strongest warning yet, the Bank of England said that overvalued artificial intelligence companies and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence have increased the risk of a "sharp market correction." In its quarterly Financial Stability Report, the central bank noted that while "significant uncertainties remain in the global macroeconomic outlook," asset valuations have continued to rise and credit spreads have narrowed since its June review.
According to the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee meeting held on October 2, officials said that stock market valuations appear "excessively high," with "technology companies focused on artificial intelligence" being particularly vulnerable. If "market expectations of the impact of artificial intelligence become pessimistic," these companies will be more significantly affected. This view has been expressed by several others, including renowned trader Paul Tudor Jones, who said this week that the US stock market may be entering the "final stage of a frenzied rally."
The US dollar index hit a nine-week high, driven by a weakening euro amid the French political crisis. The US dollar index has risen sharply over the past three weeks, reaching a new nine-week high today. Meanwhile, the euro fell to a two-month low, largely due to tensions in the EU and European markets caused by the French political crisis.
Outgoing French Prime Minister Sebastien Le Cornu expressed confidence in forming a new government through negotiations, but stopped short of fully endorsing a new proposal to review the controversial pensions bill. Former French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said she was open to suspending the pensions bill if it would bring stability to the country – a major concession for the Socialist Party. Le Cornu noted that the goal of passing the budget by the end of the year “reduces the possibility of dissolving the National Assembly” and “requires that all parties have the capacity to move forward.” Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced an unexpected interest rate cut and hinted at further monetary easing, sending the New Zealand dollar to a six-month low and providing additional support for the US dollar's gains today.
Global stock markets saw mixed gains and losses overnight, with overall weakness. U.S. stock indexes are expected to open slightly higher when New York trading opens.
In other key external markets today, crude oil prices were firm, trading around $62.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was currently at 4.11%.
Technical Analysis
(Comex Gold Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)
From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have a clear advantage in the overall near-term technical picture. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing futures prices above the key resistance level of $4,100.00. Bears' immediate downside price objective is pushing futures prices below key technical support at $3,850.00. First resistance is seen at today's all-time high of $4,071.50, with further resistance at $4,100.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,005.60, with further support at $4,000.00.
December silver futures bulls also have a clear advantage in the overall near-term technical picture. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is pushing prices above key technical resistance at $50.00. Bears' immediate downside price objective is closing prices below key support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $48.835, with further resistance at $49.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $47.53, with further support at $47.00.
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