The US dollar rebounded continuously, and the US and Switzerland maintained range fluctuations, waiting for the direction to be selected
2025-10-09 14:18:22
USD/CHF fell from the monthly high of 0.8030 to around 0.8000 during Thursday's Asian session, and the US dollar came under pressure.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed that policymakers believed it was appropriate to ease monetary policy for the remainder of 2025, "with downside risks to employment increasing, while upside risks to inflation did not increase significantly."
The Fed's dot plot suggests the federal funds rate could fall to 3.6% by year-end, suggesting two more rate cuts this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows that market expectations for rate cuts this month and in December remain very firm, with the probability of a rate cut at this month's policy meeting near certainty and the probability of a December cut at around 78.6%.
Investors will focus on Powell's speech at the Community Bank Conference in Washington, D.C., for signals on the Fed's future interest rate direction, which will directly affect the US dollar and USD/CHF.
The Swiss National Bank is cautious about negative interest rates. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel pointed out that consumer inflation expectations may accelerate in the coming quarters, which may limit market expectations for ultra-loose monetary policy.
He also warned that negative interest rates could be detrimental to pensioners and financial institutions, so there was limited room for further appreciation of the Swiss franc in the short term.
USD/CHF is currently supported around 0.8000. If it holds this level, short-term adjustments may be limited. Focus on the 0.7970-0.7965 area and the early month low of 0.7920 as support.
Upward resistance lies at 0.8030 (monthly high) and the 0.8050–0.8060 range. If this level breaks through, the rebound trend may resume. Overall, the pressure on the US dollar is dragging down the USD/CHF pair, but we still need to pay attention to the Fed's speech and the breakthrough of key technical levels to determine the subsequent trend.
Editor's opinion:
The US dollar is under short-term pressure, and expectations of a Fed rate cut are providing limited support, pushing USD/CHF back to around 0.8000. The Swiss National Bank is unlikely to push for negative interest rates in the near term, limiting the potential for Swiss franc appreciation. We should monitor Powell's speech and the reaction to key support levels to gauge the future direction of USD/CHF.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed that policymakers believed it was appropriate to ease monetary policy for the remainder of 2025, "with downside risks to employment increasing, while upside risks to inflation did not increase significantly."
The Fed's dot plot suggests the federal funds rate could fall to 3.6% by year-end, suggesting two more rate cuts this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows that market expectations for rate cuts this month and in December remain very firm, with the probability of a rate cut at this month's policy meeting near certainty and the probability of a December cut at around 78.6%.
Investors will focus on Powell's speech at the Community Bank Conference in Washington, D.C., for signals on the Fed's future interest rate direction, which will directly affect the US dollar and USD/CHF.
The Swiss National Bank is cautious about negative interest rates. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel pointed out that consumer inflation expectations may accelerate in the coming quarters, which may limit market expectations for ultra-loose monetary policy.
He also warned that negative interest rates could be detrimental to pensioners and financial institutions, so there was limited room for further appreciation of the Swiss franc in the short term.
USD/CHF is currently supported around 0.8000. If it holds this level, short-term adjustments may be limited. Focus on the 0.7970-0.7965 area and the early month low of 0.7920 as support.
Upward resistance lies at 0.8030 (monthly high) and the 0.8050–0.8060 range. If this level breaks through, the rebound trend may resume. Overall, the pressure on the US dollar is dragging down the USD/CHF pair, but we still need to pay attention to the Fed's speech and the breakthrough of key technical levels to determine the subsequent trend.
Editor's opinion:
The US dollar is under short-term pressure, and expectations of a Fed rate cut are providing limited support, pushing USD/CHF back to around 0.8000. The Swiss National Bank is unlikely to push for negative interest rates in the near term, limiting the potential for Swiss franc appreciation. We should monitor Powell's speech and the reaction to key support levels to gauge the future direction of USD/CHF.
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