Drone bombing of Russian energy plant! Ukraine's new tactic shocked the world, but is the hope for peace slim?
2025-10-21 09:15:44
In recent years, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has continued to capture global attention. The October 2025 meeting between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and US President Trump, the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian energy facilities, and Russia's latest statements regarding the peace process have brought the situation in Ukraine to a new climax. These events not only reveal Ukraine's latest military and diplomatic developments but also raise questions about the future trajectory of the conflict. Is this the dawn of peace, or will the conflict escalate further?
Positive signals from the meeting
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held multiple rounds of talks with US President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., lasting more than two hours. Zelensky told the media on Sunday (October 19) that the meeting conveyed a "positive message," and Trump called on both Russia and Ukraine to achieve a "ceasefire on the ground" at the end of the talks.
Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine, as a frontline country in the conflict, felt the support of the Trump team during the meeting. He particularly mentioned that the two sides made substantial progress during the talks on Ukraine's acquisition of a new air defense system.
Zelensky revealed that Ukraine is preparing a contract to purchase 25 Patriot air defense systems. This major move will significantly enhance Ukraine's ability to resist Russian missile attacks and inject new strength into Ukraine's air defense system.
The delicate balance of US-Ukraine relations
While Zelensky's assessment of the meeting was positive, Trump's stance has been interpreted differently. Earlier reports indicated that Trump had harshly criticized Zelensky at the White House, a stark contrast to his description of the "successful meeting." Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Olga Stefanishyna stated that the meeting was candid and fruitful, laying a solid foundation for ending the conflict and achieving lasting peace in Ukraine. However, Trump himself sounded cautious on Monday, stating that the decision to provide weapons to Ukraine was "a bit complicated" and emphasizing that the United States is pushing Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement to end the conflict.
Unmet Goal: The Regret of the Tomahawk Missile
It is worth noting that Zelenskyy failed to achieve a key goal of his trip - persuading the United States to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. Zelenskyy believes that this failure may be related to Trump's reluctance to take measures that would anger Russia before his upcoming summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This shows the delicate balance in US-Ukraine relations between supporting Ukraine and avoiding exacerbating the conflict between Russia and the US. During a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Albanese, Trump admitted that the "mutual hatred" between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders made the peace process challenging, but he remained optimistic about reaching an agreement.
Orenburg gas plant attacked
On October 20, a Ukrainian drone attack targeted a natural gas processing plant in Orenburg Oblast, Russia, operated by Gazprom and one of the world's largest. The attack halted the plant's flow of natural gas from the Karachaganak oil field in neighboring Kazakhstan, severely impacting Kazakhstan's energy production. According to industry sources, condensate production at the Karachaganak field has plummeted by 25% to 30%, from a daily rate of 35,000 to 35,500 tons to a range of 25,000 to 28,000 tons.
The chain reaction in Kazakhstan
The Karachaganak field's oil and natural gas production are closely linked, and a decline in natural gas production directly limits the field's oil production capacity. Furthermore, the field's natural gas is used for reinjection to maintain reservoir pressure and to power local facilities, so the consequences of the attack were felt across multiple sectors.
Although sources said the Orenburg plant may resume some gas intake on Monday, it remains unclear when full normal operations will be restored. The attack not only impacted Russia's energy infrastructure but also posed a challenge to Kazakhstan's energy economy, highlighting the destructive power of Ukraine's drone strategy.
Energy war in Ukraine escalates
Since August 2025, Ukraine has significantly increased its drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, targeting refineries and other critical energy infrastructure. Ukraine confirmed that the attacks also involved a refinery in Samara Oblast. These actions are intended to cut off Russia's fuel supply and weaken its conflict funding sources. Ukraine's "energy war" strategy demonstrates its military initiative while further escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
"Ukraine will not win" statement
In contrast to Zelensky's optimism, Trump made clear on October 20 that he did not believe Ukraine could win a conflict against Russia. "They still could win," he told reporters at the White House. "I don't think they will win, but they still could win."
Trump also added that the unpredictability of the conflict makes any outcome possible and that "conflict is a very strange thing." This statement is different from his previous statement that "Ukraine could win", indicating that his confidence in the situation in Ukraine has wavered.
The complexity of the peace process
Trump emphasized that the United States is working to promote an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to end the years-long conflict. However, he acknowledged that deep hostility between Russian and Ukrainian leaders makes the peace process extremely difficult. Trump's statement reflects the dilemma the United States faces in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: on the one hand, it wants to support Ukraine, but on the other hand, it is reluctant to overly provoke Russia and cause the situation to spiral out of control.
Progress and obstacles in Russia-US consultations
On October 20, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is engaging in "serious consultations" with the United States in an effort to reach a peace agreement on Ukraine. However, he accused Ukraine of sending "conflicting signals," complicating the peace process. Peskov declined to provide details on the specific territorial issues discussed in Putin's phone call with Trump last week, but his statement demonstrates Russia's cautious approach to diplomacy.
The crux of the territorial dispute
Ukraine and its allies have long called for an immediate ceasefire, while Russia insists on further territorial concessions before the conflict ends. This core disagreement has become the biggest obstacle to peace talks. Ukrainian drone attacks and Russia's hardline stance have further exacerbated the situation, casting a shadow over the prospects for peace.
Conclusion: Ukraine at a crossroads
From Zelenskyy's "successful meeting" with Trump to the precision strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian energy facilities, to Trump's pessimistic outlook on the war in Ukraine and Russia's mixed stance on the peace process, the situation in Ukraine stands at a critical crossroads. Zelenskyy's diplomatic efforts have secured potential support for Ukraine's air defense system, but Trump's cautious approach and Russia's tough stance indicate that the road to peace remains long and winding. While Ukraine's "energy war" strategy has reduced Russia's resource supply in the short term, it could also trigger more drastic retaliation.
The continued escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and geopolitical uncertainty often serve as strong drivers of gold's safe-haven appeal. While Zelenskyy and Trump achieved progress in air defense system procurement during their meeting, a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian energy facilities, resulting in a sharp drop in Kazakhstan's production, along with Trump's pessimistic outlook on the war in Ukraine and Russia's accusations against the peace process, have exacerbated global energy supply concerns and market volatility. Investors may flock to the gold market for safety, driving prices higher in the short term, especially if the conflict triggers a broader energy crisis or escalates sanctions, further amplifying gold's safe-haven demand.
However, in the medium to long term, if positive signals from the US-Ukraine talks lead to a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, or if Trump makes substantial progress on a peace agreement, the geopolitical risk premium could recede, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Overall, gold prices are expected to rise in the short term, but caution should be exercised against downside risks posed by a diplomatic turnaround. Furthermore, attention should be paid to news related to the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut, the international trade situation, and the US government shutdown.
At 09:14 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,359.81 per ounce.
1. Zelensky’s “successful meeting” with Trump: hope for peace or diplomatic game?
Positive signals from the meeting
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held multiple rounds of talks with US President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., lasting more than two hours. Zelensky told the media on Sunday (October 19) that the meeting conveyed a "positive message," and Trump called on both Russia and Ukraine to achieve a "ceasefire on the ground" at the end of the talks.
Zelenskyy stressed that Ukraine, as a frontline country in the conflict, felt the support of the Trump team during the meeting. He particularly mentioned that the two sides made substantial progress during the talks on Ukraine's acquisition of a new air defense system.
Zelensky revealed that Ukraine is preparing a contract to purchase 25 Patriot air defense systems. This major move will significantly enhance Ukraine's ability to resist Russian missile attacks and inject new strength into Ukraine's air defense system.
The delicate balance of US-Ukraine relations
While Zelensky's assessment of the meeting was positive, Trump's stance has been interpreted differently. Earlier reports indicated that Trump had harshly criticized Zelensky at the White House, a stark contrast to his description of the "successful meeting." Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Olga Stefanishyna stated that the meeting was candid and fruitful, laying a solid foundation for ending the conflict and achieving lasting peace in Ukraine. However, Trump himself sounded cautious on Monday, stating that the decision to provide weapons to Ukraine was "a bit complicated" and emphasizing that the United States is pushing Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement to end the conflict.
Unmet Goal: The Regret of the Tomahawk Missile
It is worth noting that Zelenskyy failed to achieve a key goal of his trip - persuading the United States to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. Zelenskyy believes that this failure may be related to Trump's reluctance to take measures that would anger Russia before his upcoming summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This shows the delicate balance in US-Ukraine relations between supporting Ukraine and avoiding exacerbating the conflict between Russia and the US. During a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Albanese, Trump admitted that the "mutual hatred" between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders made the peace process challenging, but he remained optimistic about reaching an agreement.
2. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities: A new front in the conflict
Orenburg gas plant attacked
On October 20, a Ukrainian drone attack targeted a natural gas processing plant in Orenburg Oblast, Russia, operated by Gazprom and one of the world's largest. The attack halted the plant's flow of natural gas from the Karachaganak oil field in neighboring Kazakhstan, severely impacting Kazakhstan's energy production. According to industry sources, condensate production at the Karachaganak field has plummeted by 25% to 30%, from a daily rate of 35,000 to 35,500 tons to a range of 25,000 to 28,000 tons.
The chain reaction in Kazakhstan
The Karachaganak field's oil and natural gas production are closely linked, and a decline in natural gas production directly limits the field's oil production capacity. Furthermore, the field's natural gas is used for reinjection to maintain reservoir pressure and to power local facilities, so the consequences of the attack were felt across multiple sectors.
Although sources said the Orenburg plant may resume some gas intake on Monday, it remains unclear when full normal operations will be restored. The attack not only impacted Russia's energy infrastructure but also posed a challenge to Kazakhstan's energy economy, highlighting the destructive power of Ukraine's drone strategy.
Energy war in Ukraine escalates
Since August 2025, Ukraine has significantly increased its drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, targeting refineries and other critical energy infrastructure. Ukraine confirmed that the attacks also involved a refinery in Samara Oblast. These actions are intended to cut off Russia's fuel supply and weaken its conflict funding sources. Ukraine's "energy war" strategy demonstrates its military initiative while further escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
3. Trump’s pessimistic predictions about the prospects of the Ukrainian conflict
"Ukraine will not win" statement
In contrast to Zelensky's optimism, Trump made clear on October 20 that he did not believe Ukraine could win a conflict against Russia. "They still could win," he told reporters at the White House. "I don't think they will win, but they still could win."
Trump also added that the unpredictability of the conflict makes any outcome possible and that "conflict is a very strange thing." This statement is different from his previous statement that "Ukraine could win", indicating that his confidence in the situation in Ukraine has wavered.
The complexity of the peace process
Trump emphasized that the United States is working to promote an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to end the years-long conflict. However, he acknowledged that deep hostility between Russian and Ukrainian leaders makes the peace process extremely difficult. Trump's statement reflects the dilemma the United States faces in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: on the one hand, it wants to support Ukraine, but on the other hand, it is reluctant to overly provoke Russia and cause the situation to spiral out of control.
4. Russia’s accusations: Ukraine’s “conflicting signals”
Progress and obstacles in Russia-US consultations
On October 20, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is engaging in "serious consultations" with the United States in an effort to reach a peace agreement on Ukraine. However, he accused Ukraine of sending "conflicting signals," complicating the peace process. Peskov declined to provide details on the specific territorial issues discussed in Putin's phone call with Trump last week, but his statement demonstrates Russia's cautious approach to diplomacy.
The crux of the territorial dispute
Ukraine and its allies have long called for an immediate ceasefire, while Russia insists on further territorial concessions before the conflict ends. This core disagreement has become the biggest obstacle to peace talks. Ukrainian drone attacks and Russia's hardline stance have further exacerbated the situation, casting a shadow over the prospects for peace.
Conclusion: Ukraine at a crossroads
From Zelenskyy's "successful meeting" with Trump to the precision strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian energy facilities, to Trump's pessimistic outlook on the war in Ukraine and Russia's mixed stance on the peace process, the situation in Ukraine stands at a critical crossroads. Zelenskyy's diplomatic efforts have secured potential support for Ukraine's air defense system, but Trump's cautious approach and Russia's tough stance indicate that the road to peace remains long and winding. While Ukraine's "energy war" strategy has reduced Russia's resource supply in the short term, it could also trigger more drastic retaliation.
The continued escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and geopolitical uncertainty often serve as strong drivers of gold's safe-haven appeal. While Zelenskyy and Trump achieved progress in air defense system procurement during their meeting, a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian energy facilities, resulting in a sharp drop in Kazakhstan's production, along with Trump's pessimistic outlook on the war in Ukraine and Russia's accusations against the peace process, have exacerbated global energy supply concerns and market volatility. Investors may flock to the gold market for safety, driving prices higher in the short term, especially if the conflict triggers a broader energy crisis or escalates sanctions, further amplifying gold's safe-haven demand.
However, in the medium to long term, if positive signals from the US-Ukraine talks lead to a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, or if Trump makes substantial progress on a peace agreement, the geopolitical risk premium could recede, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Overall, gold prices are expected to rise in the short term, but caution should be exercised against downside risks posed by a diplomatic turnaround. Furthermore, attention should be paid to news related to the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut, the international trade situation, and the US government shutdown.
At 09:14 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,359.81 per ounce.
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