Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply and faced strong downward pressure
2025-10-22 00:15:39
During the U.S. trading session on Monday (October 21st), potential bargain hunters dominated the gold and silver markets, buying into Friday's sharp decline. Gold futures prices hit a record high of $4,398 per ounce that day. However, intraday price fluctuations in the gold and silver futures markets have become extremely volatile. This is not a bullish sign. On the positive side, it suggests that the current major bull market may be entering its final stages. On the negative side, it suggests that the market may be in a state of volatile trading for an unknown period of time. This volatility could cause speculative bulls and bears in the gold and silver futures markets to exit due to concerns about a "double kill." Commodity traders are closely watching the gold and silver markets this week, as their sharp price fluctuations could transmit to other futures markets, driving up volatility in these markets.
Global stock markets showed mixed trends overnight, with U.S. indices expected to open mixed in New York.
US and Australia jointly develop rare earths
On Monday, President Trump and visiting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an agreement to increase U.S. access to rare earth and other critical minerals. The two governments will jointly invest in a series of mining and processing projects in Australia to expand production of commodities used in advanced technologies, from electric vehicles and semiconductors to fighter jets.
Albanese told Trump at the White House that Australia has an "A$8.5 billion pipeline of projects ready to go." Trump said: "In about a year, we will have more critical minerals and rare earths than we can use."
China's port cargo congestion threatens commodity supply chains
As the Sino-US geopolitical rivalry disrupts global trade, the number of commodity ships waiting to berth outside Chinese ports has reached its highest level this year. Bloomberg calculated, based on data from the ship-tracking platform Kpler, that ships waited an average of 2.66 days to berth after arriving at ports in the week ending October 19. This represents a 17% increase from the previous week and the longest wait time so far this year.
Bloomberg News pointed out: "China is the world's largest importer of commodities. If the ship congestion continues, it may affect the global supply chain and affect the transportation of liquid goods such as crude oil and bulk goods such as iron ore. China and the United States have already started a game in the shipping field. After the United States took the lead in taking relevant measures, China also began to impose high surcharges on ships with ties to the United States."
New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures trends
Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose slightly overnight to around $58 a barrel after falling to a 5-1/2-month low on Monday as traders weighed signals of a growing crude supply glut ahead of U.S.-China trade talks.
According to Bloomberg, citing data from Vortexa, the amount of crude oil loaded on offshore tankers has reached a record high as oil-producing countries continue to increase production. The International Energy Agency predicts that as the OPEC+ alliance and non-OPEC oil-producing countries increase production, the global crude oil supply surplus will reach a record high next year.
Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV: "The current supply growth rate is three times the demand growth rate, and the market is in a state of oversupply in the short term." As the "leader" in the commodity field, the downward trend in crude oil prices is a negative external factor for the agricultural futures market.
In other key external markets today, the U.S. dollar index was slightly stronger; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at 3.98%.
Gold futures technical analysis
(Source of spot gold daily chart: Yihuitong)
From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls maintain the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing prices above key resistance at $4,398, the contract's all-time high. Bears' short-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below key technical support at $4,000.
Silver futures technical analysis
Silver bulls also have the technical advantage in the overall short-term trend. However, the market formed a bearish "key reversal" downtrend pattern last Friday, which is one of the technical signals suggesting that the market may have peaked.
Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing prices above key resistance at $53.765, the contract's all-time high. Silver bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below key support at $46.70.
Note: The gold market operates primarily through two pricing mechanisms: the spot market, where prices are quoted for immediate purchase and delivery; and the futures market, where prices are quoted for delivery at a specific future date. Due to year-end position adjustments and market liquidity factors, the most actively traded gold futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is the December delivery contract.
Global stock markets showed mixed trends overnight, with U.S. indices expected to open mixed in New York.
US and Australia jointly develop rare earths
On Monday, President Trump and visiting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an agreement to increase U.S. access to rare earth and other critical minerals. The two governments will jointly invest in a series of mining and processing projects in Australia to expand production of commodities used in advanced technologies, from electric vehicles and semiconductors to fighter jets.
Albanese told Trump at the White House that Australia has an "A$8.5 billion pipeline of projects ready to go." Trump said: "In about a year, we will have more critical minerals and rare earths than we can use."
China's port cargo congestion threatens commodity supply chains
As the Sino-US geopolitical rivalry disrupts global trade, the number of commodity ships waiting to berth outside Chinese ports has reached its highest level this year. Bloomberg calculated, based on data from the ship-tracking platform Kpler, that ships waited an average of 2.66 days to berth after arriving at ports in the week ending October 19. This represents a 17% increase from the previous week and the longest wait time so far this year.
Bloomberg News pointed out: "China is the world's largest importer of commodities. If the ship congestion continues, it may affect the global supply chain and affect the transportation of liquid goods such as crude oil and bulk goods such as iron ore. China and the United States have already started a game in the shipping field. After the United States took the lead in taking relevant measures, China also began to impose high surcharges on ships with ties to the United States."
New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures trends
Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose slightly overnight to around $58 a barrel after falling to a 5-1/2-month low on Monday as traders weighed signals of a growing crude supply glut ahead of U.S.-China trade talks.
According to Bloomberg, citing data from Vortexa, the amount of crude oil loaded on offshore tankers has reached a record high as oil-producing countries continue to increase production. The International Energy Agency predicts that as the OPEC+ alliance and non-OPEC oil-producing countries increase production, the global crude oil supply surplus will reach a record high next year.
Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV: "The current supply growth rate is three times the demand growth rate, and the market is in a state of oversupply in the short term." As the "leader" in the commodity field, the downward trend in crude oil prices is a negative external factor for the agricultural futures market.
In other key external markets today, the U.S. dollar index was slightly stronger; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at 3.98%.
Gold futures technical analysis
(Source of spot gold daily chart: Yihuitong)
From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls maintain the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing prices above key resistance at $4,398, the contract's all-time high. Bears' short-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below key technical support at $4,000.
Silver futures technical analysis
Silver bulls also have the technical advantage in the overall short-term trend. However, the market formed a bearish "key reversal" downtrend pattern last Friday, which is one of the technical signals suggesting that the market may have peaked.
Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing prices above key resistance at $53.765, the contract's all-time high. Silver bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below key support at $46.70.
Note: The gold market operates primarily through two pricing mechanisms: the spot market, where prices are quoted for immediate purchase and delivery; and the futures market, where prices are quoted for delivery at a specific future date. Due to year-end position adjustments and market liquidity factors, the most actively traded gold futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is the December delivery contract.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
