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October 22 Financial Breakfast: Investors took profits, gold prices fell over 5% to break through 4100, and oil prices rebounded from a five-month low

2025-10-22 07:26:12

On Wednesday (October 22, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around $4,115 an ounce. Gold prices fell more than 5% on Tuesday, the largest single-day drop in five years. Investors took profits on expectations that the US government shutdown would end and a trade agreement would be reached. U.S. crude oil was trading around $57.58 a barrel. Oil prices rose on Tuesday as investors reassessed expectations of an impending oversupply and sought a clear direction in the trade dispute.

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Focus on the day



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ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech.

stock market


U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the gains, as a series of upbeat earnings reports attracted investors to the industrial and capital goods sectors.

The S&P 500 closed essentially flat, while weakness in growth and chip stocks dragged the tech-heavy Nasdaq slightly lower.

Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, said the market is in a state of hesitation and no one has a particularly strong opinion on anything, which is also reflected in the market's weakened reaction to earnings surprises.

Third-quarter earnings season has reached its peak, with upbeat reports from major companies such as General Motors, GE Aerospace, 3M, and Coca-Cola. However, with major U.S. stock indices hovering near all-time highs and valuations stretched, strong earnings alone may not be enough to sustain investor risk appetite.

"Corporate earnings beat expectations and margins improved a bit, suggesting companies may be passing on tariff costs to importers or consumers," Green said. "But there's nothing particularly telling about where the market is headed."

General Motors raised its financial forecast and mitigated the expected impact of tariffs. The automaker's shares surged 14.9%.

Coca-Cola shares rose 4.1% after solid consumer demand drove better-than-expected earnings, while diversified manufacturer 3M shares rose 7.7% after the company raised its full-year outlook, driven by its focus on higher-margin products and cost controls.

Aerospace and defense companies Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX all raised their earnings forecasts, citing strong demand for war machinery. The S&P 1500 Aerospace/Defense Index rose 1.9%.

Netflix shares fell 5.8% in after-hours trading after the streaming company missed its profit targets.

So far, 78 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings. Of these, 87% have exceeded Wall Street expectations. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.2% year-over-year in the third quarter, a stronger increase than the 8.8% forecast on October 1st.

This week, Tesla, IBM, Procter & Gamble and Intel will also release highly anticipated earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.47% to 46,924.74 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.22 points to 6,735.35 points; and the Nasdaq fell 0.16% to 22,953.67 points.

Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, consumer discretionary and industrials led the gains, while utilities suffered the biggest decline.

Warner Bros. Discovery shares surged 11% after the company announced it was considering a full sale and had received interest from several potential buyers, becoming the focus of the latest wave of media industry restructuring. Later in the day, its board rejected a takeover bid from Paramount Skydance.

The government shutdown has entered its third week, and the lack of official data has left investors, economists and policymakers in an information blind spot, making the Federal Reserve's decision-making, which is highly dependent on data, more complicated.

Even so, the Federal Reserve will cut its key policy rate two more times by 25 basis points before the end of the year, according to a survey of economists. U.S. President Trump has also struck a positive tone on trade.

Gold Market


Gold prices suffered their biggest one-day drop in five years on Tuesday as investors booked profits following a record rally driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand.

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Spot gold plunged 5.5% to a one-week low of $4,115.26 an ounce, the biggest drop since August 2020. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down 5.7% at $4,109.10 an ounce.

Independent metals trader Tai Wong said there was still bargain hunting in gold, but a surge in volatility from high levels over the past week sent a signal of caution and may have encouraged at least short-term profit-taking.

Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said in a report that the overall market risk appetite improved at the beginning of this week, which was bearish for the safe-haven metal.

Expectations that the U.S. government shutdown will end and a trade deal will be reached could cause gold prices to consolidate over the next two to three weeks, Citi analysts said in a note.

Spot silver plummeted 7.6% to $48.49 per ounce. Wong said silver prices plummeted on Tuesday, dragging down the overall performance of precious metals. Silver's short-term ceiling now appears to be $54, with market sentiment fluctuating below $50. As long as gold prices remain relatively strong, silver prices are likely to remain volatile.

Among other precious metals, platinum fell 5.9% to $1,541.85 an ounce, while palladium plummeted 5.3% to $1,417.25 an ounce.

Oil Market


Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday, rebounding from a five-month low hit in the previous session, as investors reassessed expectations of a looming supply glut and sought clarity on the direction of the trade dispute.

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Brent crude futures settled up 0.5% at $61.32 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures for November delivery, which expire at settlement on Tuesday, rose 0.5% to $57.82.

Both crude futures fell to their lowest since early May on Monday as expectations of a supply glut grew amid record U.S. oil production and the decision by OPEC and its allies to proceed with plans to increase supply.

However, relatively low U.S. crude and distillate fuel inventories are helping to offset some of the pressure on benchmark oil futures, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

The trade dispute has also increased expectations that slowing global economic growth will curb oil demand, though both sides have sought to downplay the disagreement.

foreign exchange market


The yen retreated to a one-week low on Tuesday after hawkish conservative Sanae Takaichi became Japan's first female prime minister, with traders betting her government could cloud the outlook for interest rates and expand fiscal easing.

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Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi won the lower house prime ministerial election on Tuesday, a move widely expected by investors as she had the support of the right-wing opposition Restoration Party.

The yen fell 0.76% to 151.895 yen against the dollar in late New York trading, after hitting its lowest level since October 14, its biggest one-day drop in two weeks. The yen also struggled against the euro and pound.

Earlier on Tuesday, local media reported that Takaichi had finalized plans to appoint Katayama Satsuki, a former regional revitalization minister, as finance minister. Katayama had hinted in a March interview that she favored a stronger yen. Her appointment could cause markets to reconsider their strategy of suppressing the yen excessively.

"We still believe that inflation and households' purchasing power will remain important issues for the new government to improve its public support and therefore it is unlikely to support a weaker yen," said Volkmar Baur, foreign exchange and commodities analyst at Commerzbank.

Still, Takaichi's support for fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy has unsettled investors and complicated the Bank of Japan's path to raising interest rates.

Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, said that from a political perspective, the Bank of Japan might consider delaying monetary tightening until fiscal easing kicks in. This puts the Bank of Japan in a dilemma.

Overall, despite generally optimistic market sentiment, exchange rates have mostly fluctuated within a range. Furthermore, Kevin Hassett, Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, indicated that the 20-day federal government shutdown could end this week. Concerns about credit risks in the U.S. banking sector have also eased somewhat.

The dollar index, supported by a weaker yen, rose to a six-day high. The index was up 0.312% at 98.921 in late New York trading.

European Central Bank executive board member Philip Lane said on Tuesday that euro zone banks could come under pressure if dollar funding dries up, potentially forcing them to reduce lending to the economy.

Concerns about dollar funding have been weighing on central bankers since Trump announced a series of trade tariffs earlier this year and began pressuring the Federal Reserve.

The euro fell 0.3% to $1.161, with easing political uncertainty in France doing little to help.

Sterling also fell against the dollar despite data showing Britain borrowed the most in the first half of the fiscal year since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, with investors saying the likelihood of an austerity budget next month was already priced in.

International News


Trump asks Republican senators to remain firm as government shutdown enters day 21

As the US government shutdown entered its 21st day, President Trump urged Senate Republicans to hold their ground and warned Democrats they would face political consequences for the impasse if they didn't vote quickly to approve funding. "Our message has been simple: We will not be coerced by this crazy plot of theirs," Trump said at an event in the White House Rose Garden on Tuesday, where he hosted Senate Republicans for lunch in a show of party unity.

Trump said he did not want to have a meaningless meeting with Putin, and the second summit between the two sides may face variables

Trump said on Tuesday that he did not want to have a "meaningless meeting" with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was the latest sign that a planned second summit between the two leaders might be stalled. Trump said he had not yet made up his mind to cancel the meeting, but he reiterated his idea of freezing the current fighting lines as part of a ceasefire agreement, a proposal that the Kremlin has rejected. "I don't want to have a meaningless meeting," Trump told reporters at the White House. "I don't want to waste time, so I'll see how it goes." Trump said he remained hopeful about a ceasefire, but his overall assessment of the conflict was more pessimistic, suggesting his expectations for a quick resolution might be waning. Hours earlier, a White House official said Trump had no plans to meet with Putin in the near future.

The US government is reportedly involved in negotiations to support US companies in obtaining tungsten mining rights in Kazakhstan.

The Trump administration is engaged in negotiations to secure approval for a U.S. company to develop some of Kazakhstan's world-leading undeveloped tungsten deposits. Commerce Secretary Lutnik has facilitated discussions between Cove Kaz Capital Group LLC and Kazakhstan's sovereign wealth fund to bid for the development of two of the Central Asian nation's largest tungsten deposits, according to people familiar with the matter. Tungsten has a wide range of applications in ammunition and other weaponry. The U.S. government is promoting the initiative through the International Trade Administration and may provide financial support through federal agencies including the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank of China, sources familiar with the matter said. These agencies are established to finance private sector projects, often outside the United States.

European leaders issued a joint statement supporting negotiations to promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine

On the 21st local time, according to Downing Street, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, British Prime Minister Lars Starmer, German Chancellor Melz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Mario Meroni, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Portuguese President Diego Costa, Norwegian Prime Minister Johan Støre, Finnish President Stubb, Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Swedish Prime Minister Christersson, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued a joint statement. The statement expressed unanimous support for a just and lasting peace and endorsed US President Trump's proposal for an immediate ceasefire and the use of the current contact line as a starting point for negotiations. The statement reiterated that international borders should not be altered by force. All parties emphasized the continued strengthening of sanctions and pressure on the Russian economy and defense industry.

Zelensky: Ukraine is ready to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict

On the evening of the 21st local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in a speech that Ukraine has completed preparations for an upcoming meeting with European partners and will sign a new agreement on defense capabilities this week. Zelenskyy stated that this agreement will effectively become part of Ukraine's long-term security guarantees, providing lasting protection for the country and its people. He noted that Ukraine and its partner countries share a consistent position on diplomatic issues. Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine is ready to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He revealed that during his meeting with US President Trump, the two sides agreed to try to negotiate based on the current front lines.

The US government has been shut down for three weeks. US officials: There are no plans for a new round of negotiations between the two parties

On October 21st, local time, U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that Republicans would continue to push for the House-passed appropriations bill and demanded that Democrats "first agree to reopen the government." Thune also stated that there were no plans for a new round of negotiations with Democrats, believing that they should be the first to propose a proposal. Democrats, however, insisted that the issue must be resolved through negotiation. Senator Cory Booker noted that with rising health care costs putting increasing pressure on the public, "only bipartisanship can solve the problem."

South Korean banks face gold bar shortage, with some suspending sales

According to a report by the Korea Economic Daily on October 21st, Shinhan Bank recently stopped selling 1-kilogram gold bars, primarily due to a shortage at its supplier, LS MnM, due to surging demand. The bank plans to temporarily focus on selling 37.5-gram gold bars. Meanwhile, Kookmin Bank, Hana Bank, and Woori Bank have suspended sales of smaller gold bars, currently selling only 1-kilogram bars. The Korea Mint has suspended all gold bar sales from the 1st of this month until January 1st of next year. Furthermore, Nonghyup Bank has suspended sales of 37.5-gram, 187.5-gram, and 375-gram gold bars since the 20th of this month, selling only 3.75-gram, 10-gram, 100-gram, and 1-kilogram bars. According to the JoongAng Ilbo, the Korea Gold Exchange is considering whether to stop supplying gold bars to banks. (Xinhua News Agency)

Domestic News


The world's first sea-breeze direct-connected submarine data center demonstration project was completed in Shanghai Lingang

On October 21st, a conference celebrating the completion and scale-up of the world's first sea-breeze-connected submarine data center demonstration project was held in Shanghai's Lingang area. At the conference, Wu Xiaohua, Deputy Secretary of the Lingang New Area Party Working Committee, presented the project with a plaque designating it as an "International Data Center Edge Computing Node." This marks a significant milestone in the Lingang New Area's efforts to promote the deep integration of the digital economy, new energy, and marine economies. It is also a key initiative for Shanghai to serve its national strategy and build a global science and technology innovation center. The project will continue to receive policy support and supporting services, fostering the concentration of more upstream and downstream enterprises.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.

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