Silver (XAG/USD) fell about 1.5% during Asian trading on Monday, falling back below $48. Prices came under pressure primarily due to growing optimism about the global trade situation.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary pointed out that the recent 100% tariffs on exports from the Asian giant will not be implemented for the time being, and the export controls are under consideration for extension, which eased investors' concerns about trade conflicts and reduced the demand for safe-haven assets such as silver.

Meanwhile, investors are focused on the relatively mild US inflation data for September, which has fueled expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 94% probability of a rate cut at each of the two remaining Fed meetings, providing temporary support for non-yielding assets like silver.

Overall, silver prices are facing the dual impact of declining safe-haven demand and fluctuating interest rate expectations, and there is uncertainty in the short-term market direction.

According to market research, many institutions believe that the short-term pressure on silver is mainly affected by changes in market sentiment and has limited fundamental support, but expectations of a Fed rate cut may still provide a rebound opportunity near key support levels.

Analysts pointed out: "Silver is in a range of fluctuations. The decline in safe-haven demand suppresses the upward trend of prices, but the expectation of interest rate cuts still provides bottom support for non-yielding assets."

The daily chart shows that silver has recently retreated from last week's high of $54.85, leaving the short-term trend unclear. The price has continued to fail to reclaim the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $48.86, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 60, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has weakened.

Key support remains at the September 23 low of $44.47, while short-term resistance lies at the recent high of $54.50. The overall technical structure suggests a volatile and bearish outlook, with the price likely to consolidate in the $48-50 range in the short term.

Editor's opinion:

Silver's short-term performance is driven by both market sentiment and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Optimism about the global trade situation is reducing safe-haven demand, but expectations of interest rate cuts are providing support. Short-term volatility is expected, pending stabilization.