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2025-10-28 18:37:01
[Bank of England Rate Cut Expectations Delayed, Policy Shift May Not Arrive Until the First Quarter of Next Year] ⑴ 54 of 63 economists expect the Bank of England to maintain interest rates at 4.00% on November 6th, with over half (34) predicting no rate cuts this year, a significant reversal from the 70% forecast last month for a rate cut this quarter. ⑵ Interest rate futures suggest the probability of a rate cut before December has fallen from 75% to 58%, but 35 economists still predict a rate cut to 3.75% by the end of March next year, with over 60% predicting a cut to 3.50% in the second quarter. ⑶ Inflation expectations are gradually declining from 3.6% this quarter to 2.3% by the end of 2026, which, combined with an unemployment rate rising to 4.9% and stable economic growth, will create conditions for subsequent easing. ⑷ If the November 26th budget is dominated by tax increases and does not significantly increase spending, it could open the window for a rate cut in December. The pace of policy will depend on data performance and fiscal measures.
