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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The hourly candlestick chart shows that USD/JPY experienced a period of rapid decline in late October. The recent high reached 153.252, followed by a clear downward trend line connecting multiple bearish candlestick lows from the previous decline, demonstrating typical downtrend characteristics. During this period, the exchange rate briefly broke through 152.600 and quickly fell to a period low of 151.757. Subsequently, USD/JPY avoided a further decline and instead formed a rectangular consolidation zone between 151.75 and 152.10, a typical consolidation/box formation. This box indicates that bears have completed their first wave of heavy-volume declines in the very short term, but bulls are holding their ground near 152 for now, awaiting the next catalyst (from the Bank of Japan or the Federal Reserve). Indicators also confirm this pattern of sideways trading after a sharp decline. The current DIFF of the MACD indicator (26,12,9) is -0.249, the DEA is -0.208, and the MACD histogram is -0.084. Overall, it is still below the zero axis, indicating that the momentum is still biased towards the bears, but the negative value of the histogram is narrowing, indicating that the marginal strength of the bearish momentum is slowing down, rather than continuing to expand. In other words, the power of short selling is still there, but it no longer has the explosive power it had at the beginning. The relative strength index RSI (14) is currently around 38.074, still in a relatively low range. The 38 area is not extremely oversold, but it clearly tells us that the current USD/JPY is still operating in a weak range, and the short-term rebound is more like a technical rebound than a trend reversal. Only when the RSI returns to above the central axis and the price can return to above 152.600 and complete the backtest, will this rebound be more likely to be recognized by the market as an "effective repair" rather than a "dead cat bounce." Judging from the price structure, the 152.600 level remains the primary resistance level. This level served as both previous horizontal support and a high-volume trading area within the October downtrend, a typical example of "support-turned-resistance." Moving down, the key target is the 151.757 low, currently acting as a short-term support/defense level. If this support line is broken and confirmed, USD/JPY will face a new round of decline, with the market discussing the possibility of a move to 151.50 or even lower. Simply put, the technical picture is not a reversal, but rather a breather after the decline: the downtrend line remains bearish, the MACD remains negative, and the RSI remains weak. The range within the box suggests the market is digesting short-term profit-taking and awaiting signals from the central bank. The technical analysis suggests that the primary trend for USD/JPY remains downward. Unless the price can re-establish itself at 152.600 and break through the downtrend line, the rebound will be a correction rather than a renewed uptrend.