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2025-10-28 21:57:19
[The Euro's fate hangs on the Fed's decision: the ultimate showdown between technicals and policy] ⑴ If the Fed sends dovish signals at its policy meeting, the euro against the dollar could reverse the current technical downtrend. ⑵ The daily chart shows that the descending trend line formed since the September 17th peak continues to suppress any rebound in the exchange rate. The relative strength index, while not oversold, remains on a downward trend. ⑶ The exchange rate has repeatedly attempted to break through the 10-day and 21-day moving averages but failed, and this, combined with the September inverted hammer pattern, reinforces the bearish signal. ⑷ The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut. If the policy statement and Powell's speech signal a more accommodative stance, the dollar could weaken. ⑸ A break above the 1.1810 resistance level and a challenge of the September monthly high would be a key signal for a bullish rally, intensifying the battle between technicals and policy.
