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2025-10-29 16:04:19
[Preview of the Fed's October Policy Meeting] ⑴ The Fed expects to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its October 2025 policy meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. ⑵ This rate cut would continue the pace of the September rate cuts, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. ⑶ The market will closely watch for any guidance on December policy, although policymakers are not expected to provide significant new insights. ⑷ The policy backdrop has become more uncertain due to the government shutdown, leading to delays in the release of key economic indicators. ⑸ Among the limited available data, the Consumer Price Index report showed that overall inflation rose slightly to 3%, while core inflation fell slightly to the same level. ⑹ ADP data showed that the private sector added an average of 14,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 11. ⑺ The Chicago Fed's forecast shows that the unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 4.34% in September.
