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2025-10-29 20:22:54
[ADP Data May Damage Fed Confidence in December Rate Cut] Market analyst Giuseppe stated that yesterday, ADP released its four-week U.S. employment data ending October 11, 2025, showing an average weekly increase of 14,250 jobs, meaning approximately 57,000 jobs were added during those four weeks. The Dallas Fed estimated in early October that the current break-even point was around 30,000 jobs per month, while 57,000 is significantly higher. Given the lack of government data, the strong rebound in ADP data could make Fed Chairman Powell more cautious in hinting at a December rate cut. If so, this would be seen as a hawkish surprise and would significantly impact the market. Furthermore, Waller, one of the most dovish Fed governors and a candidate for Fed Chair, has also stated that ADP data is one of his reasons for supporting a rate cut. Recently, he stated, "I still believe in a rate cut, but we need to be cautious about it."
