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2025-10-29 20:35:07
[Fed Decision Preview: Early End of QT May Ignite Short-Selling Opportunities] ⑴ The benchmark 10-year yield rose slightly by about 1 basis point, hovering below the key psychological level of 4%. ⑵ US Treasury Secretary Bessant attempted to break the Japanese government's control over the central bank, emphasizing the importance of policy autonomy. ⑶ If the Fed announces an early end to quantitative tightening, the initial rebound should be seen as a selling opportunity. ⑷ Powell is likely to avoid forward guidance, emphasizing that this rate cut is purely risk management amidst data uncertainty. ⑸ Tactical trading tends to remain neutral, operating within the 4% range of the 10-year yield. ⑹ The expected trading range for the 10-year yield is 4.02% to 3.95%, paying attention to the closing price. ⑺ The federal funds rate target is expected to be lowered by 25 basis points to 3.875%, in line with the expectation of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025. ⑻ The pending home sales index is expected to rise by 1.0% in September, coupled with the 4.0% increase in August, which would be the highest level since March.
