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2025-10-29 20:44:47
[Bond Market Awaits Fed's Dual-Front Decision! Rate Cuts and Balance Sheet Reduction Process Draw Market Attention] ⑴ The bond market is closely watching the Fed's interest rate decision and is also hoping for clues about the balance sheet reduction process. ⑵ The lack of official data has raised market concerns; how Powell will respond to questions about the future interest rate path is a key focus. ⑶ Market pricing indicates a very high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut today, with expectations for another rate cut in December rising simultaneously. ⑷ The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4% in a narrow range, while the 2-year yield remains stable at 3.5%. ⑸ Trump is expected to meet with Chinese leaders tomorrow, with trade issues being a core topic of discussion. ⑹ The yield curve has seen limited overall movement, with investors maintaining a cautious stance in the face of major risk events. ⑺ The direction of the balance sheet reduction policy is as important as the interest rate decision, jointly determining the future liquidity environment. ⑻ The bond market is exhibiting a typical wait-and-see pattern; breakthroughs in key technical levels require confirmation after policy clarification.
