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2025-10-29 20:47:24
[Caixin Futures: Diverging Supply and Demand Patterns in Agricultural Product Markets] ⑴ Palm oil supply remains ample. The Secretary-General of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association stated that Indonesian palm oil production is projected to increase by 10% in 2025, causing palm oil futures to fall rapidly. ⑵ The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell by 170 yuan to 8690 yuan/ton, while the 2601 futures contract fell to 8840 yuan. ⑶ Current prices have entered a key support zone. A rebound from oversold levels is possible below 8800 yuan. Short positions near 9050 yuan/ton should be closed for profit. ⑷ US soybeans have recently strengthened due to firm domestic spot prices and strong crushing demand. ⑹ Import costs have supported a rebound in domestic soybean meal prices. Currently, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter in China is not a major issue. ⑺ However, a supply gap may exist in the first quarter of next year, supporting the premium pattern for distant months. Short-term drivers are insufficient, and a weak range-bound trading strategy is recommended. ⑻ Seasonal selling pressure on corn remains. Downstream feed mills and deep-processing enterprises have a weak willingness to purchase corn, maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. (9) High supply pressure coupled with weak demand will maintain a loose supply situation in the short term, with prices trending downwards. Short selling is still recommended. (10) In the long term, the increase in hog supply is the main contradiction, especially with a significant theoretical increase in slaughter volume in October. (11) The loose supply situation may deepen further, but short-term market speculation is increasing, with secondary fattening entering the market. (12) Increased inventory at slaughterhouses is supporting hog price increases, but this support is expected to be temporary. Chasing the price increase is not recommended; a wait-and-see approach is advised in the short term. (13) The narrowing price difference between large and small eggs, coupled with a decrease in the proportion of small-sized eggs purchased by traders, indicates a limited number of newly laying hens. (14) At the same time, farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high; the progress and speed of the inflection point in egg production need to be monitored. (15) A wait-and-see approach is recommended in the short term.
