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2025-10-29 21:25:46
[Pound Sterling Under Pressure! Bank of England Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Battle for 1.30 Level] ⑴ Negative factors for the pound continue to accumulate, with the exchange rate against the dollar gradually approaching its mid-year low and hitting a new annual low against the euro. ⑵ Continued concerns about the UK budget and weak inflation data triggering dovish repricing are dragging down the pound's performance. ⑶ Although a rate cut by the Bank of England before its autumn statement remains low, the possibility of a rate cut at the November meeting cannot be completely ruled out. ⑷ Recent significant disagreements within the Monetary Policy Committee have laid the groundwork for a surprise rate cut decision. ⑸ Institutions such as Goldman Sachs have already predicted a rate cut in November, and the market is preparing for a possible unexpected decision next week. ⑹ The market is currently pricing in a 33% probability of a rate cut, a significant increase from 15% before the inflation data release. ⑺ If the Bank of England does decide to cut rates in November, the pound could fall sharply towards the psychological level of 1.3000 against the dollar. ⑻ Technical and fundamental factors are converging in a bearish trend, significantly increasing the risk of the exchange rate testing key support levels.
