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2025-10-30 17:47:49
[German Economy Struggles Under the Shadow of Tariffs, Infrastructure Investment Offers a Glimmer of Hope for Recovery] ⑴ Germany's economy experienced zero growth in the third quarter, primarily dragged down by weak exports to the US triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑵ Quarterly data met expectations but showed a slight improvement from the 0.2% decline in the second quarter, indicating the economy is adapting to the high-tariff environment. ⑶ Business confidence surveys showed signs of recovery, with data from the Ifo Institute showing a significant increase in business expectations for the future. ⑷ Analysts predict a possible return to growth in the fourth quarter, with fiscal stimulus in 2026 expected to further boost the economic recovery. ⑸ Germany, heavily reliant on exports and manufacturing, has been particularly vulnerable to the impact of tariffs. ⑹ The government has launched a large-scale spending plan in defense and infrastructure, with investment in machinery and equipment showing positive growth in the third quarter. ⑺ Shares of defense companies such as Rheinmetall surged, and the transformation of automobile factories into weapons production lines has become a new trend. ⑻ The core growth driver is approximately €500 billion in investment in railway modernization and green energy transition. ⑼ On the same day, the French economy grew beyond expectations, with export-driven growth successfully offsetting the uncertainty brought about by the political deadlock.
