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Live Updates  >  Live Update Details

2025-10-30 18:18:17

[Wind Power Crash, German Electricity Prices Soar 21%, French Prices Plunge 60%] ⑴ Institutional data shows that at 18:50 Beijing time on Thursday, the baseload electricity price for Friday delivery in France fell to €23.6/MWh, a sharp drop of 60.7% from the previous close. ⑵ During the same period, the price range for German contracts of the same period was €92.3-93.3/MWh, compared to the previous close of €76.1, implying an increase of approximately 21%. ⑶ German wind power output is expected to halve from 34.7 GW on Thursday to 17.9 GW on Friday, forcing the country to become a net importer, despite an increase in thermal power capacity. ⑷ French nuclear power availability remained at 74% of total installed capacity, while demand on the demand side was expected to decrease by 1.2 GW to 49.7 GW on Friday. ⑸ German demand also declined by 1.4 GW to 57.9 GW on Friday, but the sharp drop in wind speeds had a greater impact on supply than on demand, leading to a sharp rise in spot premiums. (6) The average temperature over the next week will be 1-2 degrees Celsius lower than Friday's forecast, potentially leading to a short-term increase in heating load. (7) Germany's 2026 baseload annual contract rose slightly by 0.6% to €87.7/MWh, while no transactions were recorded for the French contract of the same year, which closed at €55.5/MWh. (8) The EU's 2025 benchmark carbon emission allowance contract rose slightly by 0.2% to €78.95/ton, providing additional support for thermal power costs. (9) Germany's third-quarter GDP saw zero growth quarter-on-quarter, with declining exports continuing to drag down Europe's largest economy. (10) The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis predicts that European natural gas demand will fall by 15% and liquefied natural gas imports by 20% between 2025 and 2030. While the pace of infrastructure expansion in Germany is slowing, the long-term green transformation continues.

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