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2025-10-30 19:20:34
[Germany and Italy Stall, France and Spain Surge: Europe Narrowly Outperforms in Q3] ⑴ Eurostat announced on Thursday that Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, compared to a Reuters poll forecast of only 0.1%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 1.3%, higher than the expected 1.2%. ⑵ Spain maintained its leading position with a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter increase, while France expanded by 0.5%, far exceeding the expected 0.2%. Germany and Italy both experienced zero growth, becoming the biggest drags. ⑶ The unemployment rate in September remained stable at 6.3%, close to a historical low, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in the short term. ⑷ Germany has been almost stagnant for the past three years, with large-scale government spending yet to materialize. S&P Global warned that the recovery momentum in the fourth quarter will remain weak, with the Ifo and PMI only showing initial signs of recovery. ⑸ Institutions generally expect low inventory levels, interest rate transmission, household savings, and reduced tariff uncertainty to drive a moderate recovery in future growth, but structural rigidity limits the upside potential, locking in a long-term range of 1.2%-1.5%.
