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2025-10-30 20:22:54
[Can the US Treasury 5s/30s yield curve's retest of the 92bp cliff-like double bottom save the day?] ⑴ The 5s/30s yield curve touched a low of 92bp on Thursday, matching the July trough, and then stabilized slightly. This level is forming the initial double bottom pattern, which technical analysts have already noted. ⑵ The 89.5bp level below corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the decline from February to September. A break below this level could trigger a new wave of flattening. ⑶ The previous double top of 103.5bp has successfully reached its 93bp target, and the energy of the pattern has been fully released. Short-term bears are waiting for confirmation of a break below 92bp. ⑷ The 5-year yield hit a new low of 3.50% on October 17th, and rebounded to a high of 3.72%. The key Fibonacci resistance is at 3.77%, and the next key level is at 3.78%, representing a dense cluster of previous highs. (5) The 30-year yield has rebounded from the low of 4.52% on October 22 and is now at 4.65%. The previous low of 4.675% is a resistance level. If the yield curve continues to flatten, the long end needs to hold this level to avoid a rapid decline.
