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Live Updates  >  Live Update Details

2025-10-30 20:40:13

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Ferrous Metals Sector] ⑴ Market sentiment cooled somewhat due to macroeconomic disturbances, with steel showing an increase in supply but a decrease in inventory. ⑵ Demand remains resilient, but demand for construction materials may have peaked, and whether a demand inflection point has occurred still needs to be monitored and confirmed. ⑶ Short-term cost support remains strong, and the downside potential on the market may be limited. ⑷ In terms of funding, the top 20 long positions in the rebar 01 contract decreased slightly, while short positions increased slightly, resulting in a slightly bearish change in open interest. ⑸ The top 20 long positions in the hot-rolled coil 01 contract did not change significantly, while short positions increased slightly, also resulting in a slightly bearish change in open interest. ⑹ Pig iron production remains high, and the actual rigid demand for iron ore is good, but in the medium term, November shipments may remain high. ⑺ With shrinking steel mill profits and environmental disturbances, pig iron production still has considerable room for decline, and the weak expectation pattern for iron ore continues. ⑻ Valuation still faces the risk of downward shift. In terms of funding, the top 20 short positions in the iron ore 01 contract did not change significantly, while long positions increased slightly. (9) Stricter safety inspections, environmental protection measures, and underground mining disruptions will keep supply in production areas tight. (10) With improved coking plant profits, coal mine shipments are relatively smooth, with most maintaining low inventories, and spot market demand remains strong. (11) Short-term market movements are affected by macroeconomic disturbances, leading some funds to take profits; the expected adjustment range is limited. (12) Strategically, maintain a buy-on-dips approach and avoid chasing highs; in terms of funding, the top 20 long positions in the coking coal 2601 contract saw a larger reduction. (13) Coking plant profits have improved somewhat, but production remains suppressed due to environmental protection and maintenance disruptions. (14) Against the backdrop of rising costs, the expectation of the third round of coke spot price increases is strong. (15) Steel demand is about to peak, and rising raw material prices may continue to compress steel mill profits, limiting the room for improvement in coking plant profits. (16) Strategically, a long coal and short coking coal strategy can still be maintained; factory operating rates have slightly decreased, while demand is steadily increasing. (17) Mill inventories continue to increase, and the supply and demand drivers themselves are weak; short-term market movements may follow the fluctuations of raw material coking coal. 18. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 holders of the manganese silicon 01 contract were mainly reduced, indicating a cautious attitude among investors.

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