Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-10-30 20:43:36
[MBS Under Pressure at Opening, Pre-Christmas Rate Cut Opportunities Plunge] ⑴ Institutional quotes show that at the Chicago open on Thursday, MBS basis slightly underperformed, with 30-year UMBS 30 5.0% to 6.5% bonds generally 2 to 5+ ticks lower, only the 5.0% bond was on par with the 10-year bond, the yield curve steepening in a bear market narrowing the spread. ⑵ The 10-year Treasury futures settlement price was 101-17, the yield initially rose and then fell before surging to 4.107%, a new high since October 9th. The 2s10s curve flattened by 1.7bp intraday before steepening again by 1.7bp to 48.7bp, and the futures volatility 1m10y rose to 66.2bp. ⑶ The Fed cut rates by 25bp on Wednesday, but Powell said December was "far from certain." Interest rate futures showed the probability of another rate cut in December plummeted from 85% to 71%, risk assets generally opened lower, S&P futures fell 0.2%, and the VIX fell back to 16.14. (4) There is no government data to be released today. The 30-year Freddie Mac mortgage rate fell to a year-to-date low of 6.19% last week. The market is focused on short-term debt issuance at 11 a.m. and speeches by two officials in the afternoon. MBS traders are closely watching interest rate fluctuations and year-end position adjustments.
