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2025-10-30 21:02:41
[Canadian Dollar Plunges to 1.40, Oil Falls, Bonds Rise, Double Whammy] ⑴ The Canadian dollar fell 0.4% against the US dollar to 1.4001 on Thursday, after hitting an intraday low of 1.4003, its weakest level since March 2024. ⑵ The yield on Canada's benchmark 10-year government bond fell 0.4 basis points to 3.154%, while the yield on US Treasury bonds rose to 4.1086%, widening the spread to 95 basis points, the widest since 2007. ⑶ Institutional data shows that crude oil accounts for about a quarter of Canada's export revenue. US December crude oil futures fell 0.95% to $59.91 on Thursday, dragging down the Canadian dollar, which is highly correlated with oil prices. ⑷ The swap market's implied probability of another Bank of Canada rate cut in December rose from 58% the previous day to 67%, and leveraged funds' net short positions in the Canadian dollar increased to an 11-week high, with sentiment indicators showing that short sellers are still adding to their positions. (5) On the technical chart, the USD/CAD pair closed above 1.3980 on the daily chart, triggering quantitative buying. The next key area for short stop-loss orders is at 1.4050, and short-term volatility has risen to a three-week high.
