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2025-10-31 09:56:40
[Dollar Holds Three-Month High, Forex Market Outlook Remains Uncertain] 1. The dollar held steady in early Asian trading on Friday, not far from a three-month high reached overnight, with the dollar index currently trading around 99.45. Traders are digesting mixed signals from this week's major central bank decisions, tech earnings reports, and the US-China tariff truce agreement, factors that are casting a shadow over global forex market movements. 2. Thursday's sharp drop in US stocks triggered panic in global markets, pushing the dollar higher due to risk aversion. Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney, said, "Risk aversion is favorable for the dollar." 3. The dollar fell 0.2% against the yen to 153.78 yen, retreating from a near nine-month high. Japan's core CPI in Tokyo rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, higher than expected, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, and newly appointed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama abandoned his previous comments that the yen should be 120-130 yen to the dollar, saying his current position could not support his old views. 4. Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have cooled. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 10 meeting has fallen from 91.1% a week ago to 74.7%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 0.59 basis points to 4.0989% on Thursday, a three-week high.
