At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea this week, US President Trump met with leaders of Asian countries and both sides agreed to maintain stable trade relations over the next year.

Washington lowered some import tariffs from 57% to 47%. This diplomatic easing boosted market sentiment and strengthened the dollar, but put some downward pressure on oil prices in the short term. As safe-haven demand cooled, WTI crude oil fluctuated around $60.

Meanwhile, US sanctions against Russian energy companies have triggered tensions in European energy markets. The German government is considering nationalizing Rosneft's refinery assets in the region to secure fuel supplies for the Berlin area.

However, the U.S. Treasury Department has granted a temporary exemption for the project, valid until April 2026, to give Germany time to find new overseas buyers. This move has alleviated market concerns about supply disruptions in the short term.

Market observers point out that "geopolitical uncertainty is becoming a significant driver of medium-term oil price volatility."

In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark interest rate range to 3.75%-4.00%, and plans to officially end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1.

However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated after the meeting that another rate cut in December was "not a done deal," a more hawkish tone than the market had expected. This statement pushed up US Treasury yields, strengthened the dollar, and thus limited the upside potential for crude oil.

Market analysts stated, "A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated crude oil more expensive for overseas buyers, thus suppressing short-term demand."

Market research indicates that OPEC+ may announce a modest production increase in December to gradually regain market share. This expectation, coupled with a stronger dollar, has led investors to remain cautious, causing oil prices to continue consolidating around the $60 mark.

Despite some expectations of easing on the supply side, analysts believe the market is generally in a balanced state, and the probability of significant oil price fluctuations in the short term is low.

From a technical perspective, WTI found solid support around $59.50, aligning with the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The current price is attempting to break through the downtrend line extending from the October 24 high of $62.38, with resistance concentrated around $60.40.

If the price successfully holds above this resistance level, it will confirm a short-term bullish signal, with targets potentially reaching $61.00 and $62.00, and further challenging the October 24 high of $62.38. However, a break below the $59.50 support level and the 100-period SMA ($59.37) could restart a downward trend, with key support at $55.97.


Editor's Note:

The current consolidation of WTI oil prices around $60 reflects the market's interplay of multiple factors: the Fed's interest rate cuts provide liquidity support, but a stronger dollar and increased OPEC+ production limit the rebound. In the medium term, if the trade environment continues to ease and geopolitical risks do not worsen further, oil prices are expected to maintain a stable to slightly stronger oscillating pattern until 2026.