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2025-10-31 17:07:08
[The Hedging Dilemma: Three Signals of a Dollar's Comeback] ⑴ When global markets lack clear safe-haven assets, investors often turn to the US dollar for protection, a pattern proven effective in previous hedging periods. ⑵ In 2025, investors tried various hedging tools such as the euro, yen, gold, and Swiss franc amid trade conflicts, but with mixed results: the yen fell instead of rising, and the Swiss franc's gains were limited by intervention from the Swiss National Bank. ⑶ While gold became one of the best trading instruments of the year and lacked interest rate support, its current price is expensive and trading is crowded, raising questions about its safety. ⑷ The euro is also showing signs of weakness and is unlikely to break through the key resistance level of 1.20 unless there are significant fundamental changes. ⑸ The continued rise in the stock market has reduced the demand for hedging, but investors still need to protect their profits, creating a unique market contradiction. ⑹ If the market experiences the expected correction, the currently continuously sold-off dollar and heavily shorted US Treasury bonds may show stronger rebound potential than other hedging assets this year. (7) Traditional safe-haven assets that were once overlooked—especially dollar assets that have undergone deep corrections—are returning to investors’ sights.
