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2025-10-31 19:14:58
[Summary of Latest Changes in Interest Rate Expectations of Major Central Banks] ⑴ The probability of a Fed rate cut before the end of the year is 68%, with a cumulative rate cut of 17 basis points expected. ⑵ A cumulative rate cut of 82 basis points is expected in 2026; Powell emphasizes that a December rate cut is "far from certain." ⑶ The probability of the ECB keeping rates unchanged in the near term is 96%, with only a 12 basis point rate cut expected in 2026. ⑷ The probability of the Bank of England maintaining its interest rate is 68%, with a cumulative rate cut of 64 basis points expected in 2026. ⑸ The probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia keeping rates unchanged is 92%; strong inflation data has postponed the expected rate cut to June 2026. ⑹ The probability of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting rates is 83%, with a 21 basis point rate cut expected before the end of the year. ⑺ The probability of the Bank of Japan keeping rates unchanged is 73%; Kazuo Ueda hinted that there might be no rate hike this year. ⑻ The market expects the Bank of Japan's next rate hike to be postponed until early 2026. ⑼ Both the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank tend to maintain current interest rate levels.
