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2025-10-31 19:22:33
[The Swiss Franc's Safe-Haven Aura Fades; Technical Correction Rather Than Central Bank Intervention] ⑴ The recent decline in the Swiss franc mainly reflects a decrease in safe-haven demand, rather than direct market intervention by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). ⑵ A report by Commerzbank points out that intervention estimates based on demand deposit data are often inaccurate, making it difficult to verify whether the central bank intervened. ⑶ The SNB has repeatedly emphasized that it will only intervene when the Swiss franc experiences significant fluctuations, and the current trend does not meet this condition. ⑷ The latest exchange rate for the euro against the Swiss franc is 0.9283, largely meeting Commerzbank's fourth-quarter forecast of 0.92. ⑸ The institution believes the exchange rate is "unlikely to fall significantly further," suggesting limited room for further depreciation. ⑹ Market speculation about central bank intervention lacks empirical support; exchange rate movements are driven more by technical factors. ⑺ The slight weakening trend of the Swiss franc may continue, but the risk of a significant depreciation is low due to the central bank's cautious stance.
