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2025-10-31 19:57:07
[US Treasury Yields Hold Above 4.10%, Central Bank Policy Divergence Exacerbates Market Volatility] ⑴ The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remained above 4.10%, with near-record levels of corporate bond issuance intensifying supply and demand pressures. ⑵ Federal Reserve Chairman Powell explicitly stated that a December rate cut is not a given, and Wednesday's rate cut was purely a risk management measure. ⑶ Disagreements have emerged within the European Central Bank regarding its December policy meeting; the newly released three-year forecast will be a key factor in decision-making. ⑷ Trading strategies favor selling on rallies, with the 4% psychological level becoming a significant resistance level; the 10-year yield range is expected to be 4.08%-4.12%. ⑸ Friday's government shutdown delayed the release of the employment cost index and personal income and spending reports, amplifying market volatility due to the data vacuum. ⑹ The European bond market faces structural challenges; the lifting of debt restrictions in Germany may trigger a bond issuance frenzy, testing market resilience. ⑺ Several hawkish Federal Reserve officials will speak, and their policy stances may further reinforce expectations of persistently high interest rates. (8) Although core PCE inflation is projected to remain at 2.9%, tariffs could push inflation to 3.1% by the end of 2025. (9) The ECB significantly upgraded its economic assessment in its statement, removing its cautious description of the economic situation, demonstrating a hawkish shift. (10) Market liquidity is facing a test, with over $40 billion in investment-grade corporate bond issuance in a single day exhausting buyers' capacity to absorb the supply.
