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2025-10-31 20:33:40
[Canada's GDP Plunges 0.3% in August: A Triple Blow from Mines, Factories, and Airline Strikes] ⑴ Statistics Canada data released Friday showed that August GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.3%, the fourth contraction in five months, with both services and goods sectors stalling. ⑵ Manufacturing was hardest hit by US tariffs, shrinking another 0.5% in August, accounting for nearly 10% of GDP; mining and oil and gas sectors fell 0.7%, with metal ore and coal production plunging by 1.2% and 5% respectively. ⑶ Transportation and warehousing dragged down the service sector due to airline strikes, with slight increases in retail and real estate only partially offsetting the shortfall. The leading indicator for September is estimated at only +0.1%, locking in an annualized quarterly growth of 0.4%, lower than the 0.5% forecast by the Bank of Canada a week earlier. ⑷ If the September figures are not revised downwards, Canada can avoid the official definition of recession, which requires two consecutive quarters of negative growth; Q2 already saw an annualized decline of 1.6%.
