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Live Updates  >  Live Update Details

2025-10-31 20:43:38

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Ferrous Metals Sector] ⑴ Pig iron production declined due to environmental regulations, but the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan may boost output. ⑵ Cost support remains in the short term, but the room for improvement in construction material demand is limited, and the peak demand season may have already arrived. ⑶ Overall, the supply and demand drivers for steel are weak, suppressing the upside potential of the market; short-term fluctuations are expected. ⑷ In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 rebar 01 contract decreased, with roughly equal magnitude. ⑸ Both long and short positions in the hot-rolled coil 01 contract increased, with short positions increasing slightly more, resulting in a slightly bearish change in open interest. ⑹ Iron ore port inventories continued to rise, indicating a weakening of supply and demand, but pig iron production disruptions persist. ⑺ Steel mills maintain a low inventory strategy, and restocking expectations support short-term high-level fluctuations. ⑻ Iron ore shipments are expected to remain high in November, and pig iron production still has room to decline. ⑼ The medium-term weak expectation pattern remains unchanged, and there is a risk of valuation decline; shorting is recommended on opportune occasions. ⑽ Coking coal supply remains tight due to safety inspections, environmental protection, and underground factors. (11) Downstream buyers are actively purchasing, and low coal mine inventories support stronger spot prices. (12) Macroeconomic disturbances have triggered some profit-taking, increasing market volatility, but the adjustment range is limited. (13) Strategically, maintain a buy-on-dips approach, avoiding chasing highs; short positions have been reduced more significantly. (14) Coking coal production is suppressed by environmental maintenance, and rising costs are driving expectations of a third round of price increases. (15) Steel demand is nearing its peak, and rising raw material prices may compress steel mill profits. (16) Coking plant profit improvement has limited room; a long coal, short coking coal strategy can be maintained. (17) Manganese silicon plant inventories continue to increase; supply and demand drivers are weak, but expectations of reduced manganese ore supply are rising. (18) The battle between bulls and bears intensifies; awaiting a breakout from the month-long trading range. (19) Funding has increased long positions more significantly, with a generally positive change in open interest.

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