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2025-10-31 20:47:10
[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Agricultural Product Markets] ⑴ The ample supply of palm oil continues, with Indonesia's palm oil production projected to increase by 10% in 2025. ⑵ Coupled with the weakening of crude oil prices, palm oil futures maintained a narrow range of fluctuation between 8760-8840 yuan. ⑶ The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell by 70 yuan to 8620 yuan/ton, with futures trading at a slight premium to spot. ⑷ In the short term, short positions can be initiated at the upper limit of the range, as the declining volume indicates a continued downward trend. ⑸ The trading data shows that some long positions are concentrated on bottom-fishing; short positions near 8850 yuan should be monitored for a profit-taking range of 8500-8600 yuan. ⑹ Improved expectations for US soybean exports have pushed US soybean prices back to previous highs. ⑺ Rising import costs have driven up domestic soybean meal futures prices, with ample soybean supply expected in the fourth quarter. ⑻ However, a supply gap may emerge in the first quarter of next year, and inventory pressure will gradually ease from November onwards. (9) Given rising costs and easing supply pressure, a small long position in soybean meal can be considered. (10) Corn futures have risen sharply, with China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) purchasing 250,000 tons in the past two days to alleviate supply pressure. (11) However, seasonal selling pressure remains, and downstream feed mills and deep-processing enterprises are reluctant to purchase grain. (12) Maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy is recommended, but demand is weak, and the short-term supply easing situation remains unchanged. (13) Short selling is still recommended, as the increase in hog supply is the main long-term contradiction. (14) Theoretical slaughter volume will increase significantly in October, and the supply easing situation may deepen further. (15) The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the decline in spot prices has squeezed the price bubble. (16) Short selling can be considered at opportune times, as the number of newly laying hens in the egg market is not high. (17) Farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high; attention should be paid to the progress of the production inflection point. (18) In the short term, a wait-and-see approach is recommended.
