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2025-10-31 21:46:51
[Oversupply Suppresses Geopolitical Risks, Oil Price Outlook Remains Weak in 2025] ⑴ A Reuters survey shows that despite geopolitical risks, ample supply and weak demand will continue to suppress oil prices. ⑵ 36 analysts predict an average Brent crude price of $67.99 per barrel in 2025, only $0.38 higher than last month's forecast. ⑶ The average U.S. crude price in 2025 is expected to be $64.83 per barrel, slightly higher than the September forecast of $64.39. ⑷ Year-to-date, Brent and U.S. crude average prices are $69.27 and $65.92 respectively, with current forecasts below actual levels. ⑸ Continued production increases by OPEC+ have offset the impact of geopolitical risks, raising the production target by 2.7 million barrels per day since April. ⑹ The organization favors a slight increase in production again in December, continuing its policy path of gradually easing production cuts. (7) Analysts predict a supply glut in the oil market in 2026, ranging from 190,000 to 3 million barrels per day. (8) Demand growth is projected to be between 650,000 and 2 million barrels per day, primarily driven by Chinese economic growth. (9) US sanctions against Russian oil companies and the fragility of the Middle East ceasefire constitute major geopolitical risk factors. (10) The balance between supply growth, slowing demand, and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to dominate oil price trends in 2025.
